000 
FXUS61 KPHI 071601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 AM EST THU FEB 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK OUT 
INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA TOMORROW. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON SATURDAY AND SLIDE
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...SFC-5H...TRACKING NE ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
TRAILING SFC TROF SLIDING ACROSS AREA AND PRODUCING SHOWERS FAR N
ZONES WITH KMPO REPORTING -SN. WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE WINDS ARE
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT IR/VIS LOOP SHOWING BKN-OVC
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...NO CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, THEN SEE IN AN INCREASE 
IN SOME CLOUDS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 
BROAD NORTH AMERICAN TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO GET BACK TO 
NORMAL AT THE SAME TIME THE WINDS SLACKEN OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HEAD THIS DISCUSSION.

FIRST, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS 
WEEKEND. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AT 
NIGHT, MAINLY SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS 
MIGHT CAUSE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION, SO A GENERIC MENTION OF A CHANCE 
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WAS USED FOR NOW. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN 
BE EXPECTED. NEGATIVE WINDCHILLS LOOK LIKELY IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. 
AFTER A QUIET MONDAY, THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY OR 
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, SOME SMALLISH POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ON 
TUESDAY, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN-OVC CEILINGS ARND 5000 FT THROUGH NOON
TIME, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. THEY SHOULD BREAK EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REFRESH OUT OF THE WNW WITH GUSTS UP TO OR A BIT
ABOVE 25 KT, THEN DIMINISH TOWARD DUSK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT 
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, WITH A STRONGER 
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST SLATED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS MAY WELL BECOME RATHER STRONG AFTER THE PASSAGE 
OF THE SECOND FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY INTO 
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE FORECASTING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY, 
AND WITH THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS EVENTUALLY SHOULD RELAX AS WELL. 
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW 
QUICKLY THIS WILL HAPPEN, SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY REGARDING 
TIMING OF THE PRESENT ADVISORY AND HAVE IT EXPIRING AT 500 PM EST. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND 
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BENIGN. THE FIRST IN A 
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, AND WINDS AND SEAS 
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE, POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS, IN 
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AFTER 
THE FIRST FRONT. THE SECOND FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LEADING 
EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS, PLAYS AS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE 
FIRST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AFTER THAT FRONT PASSES 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. 

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
RW(LWX)/KRUZDLO/DELISI