AFOS product AFDSJT
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT
Product Timestamp: 2007-11-18 17:53 UTC

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000 
FXUS64 KSJT 181753 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MIXING EFFECTS ARE NOW QUICKLY
BREAKING UP THE FOG AND CLOUDS. WILL SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE EAST OF
A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW CLOUD BREAKUP...
BASES OF ANY REDEVELOPED CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 3 KFT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AIRMASS IN
PLACE HOWEVER...THE SETUP FAVORS ANOTHER EPISODE OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDE. BECAUSE DENSE FOG IS SUCH AN
INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...BEING RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING
REDUCTION AT THE BRADY AND JUNCTION TAF SITES. CARRYING TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES 12Z-15Z...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007/ 

UPDATE...
BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS...ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA
THRU 15Z.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG THRU 15Z THIS MORNING AT KSOA...KJCT...AND
KBBD...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY 15Z AND IMPROVING TO VFR BY
16Z THRU 09Z. INCLUDED IFR CIGS/VIS AT ABI AS ADVECTION FOG IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  COULD SEE A REPEAT OF IFR CIGS/VIS AFTER
09Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO MENTION ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007/

SHORT TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS EAST...WITH AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH ISOLATED UPPER 70S...NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY.

LONG TERM...
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...GFS HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA OF ECMWF...AS THE GFS LATELY
HAS BEEN TO SLOW WITH FROPA. THE TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING AFTERNOON HIGHS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AROUND FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 

TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE FOR MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS
GFS KEEPS 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -7 RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN DETERMINING AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ISOLATED
AREAS  ON THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
THIS SEASON TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP
20 POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FOR
NOW HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN BUT IF TEMPERATURES END UP
BEING COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  80  53  83  61 /  10  10  10  10 
SAN ANGELO  82  51  82  59 /  10  10   0   0 
JUNCTION  82  51  81  58 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
000 
FXUS64 KSJT 181753 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1153 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT MIXING EFFECTS ARE NOW QUICKLY
BREAKING UP THE FOG AND CLOUDS. WILL SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE EAST OF
A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW CLOUD BREAKUP...
BASES OF ANY REDEVELOPED CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 3 KFT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AIRMASS IN
PLACE HOWEVER...THE SETUP FAVORS ANOTHER EPISODE OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDE. BECAUSE DENSE FOG IS SUCH AN
INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...BEING RELATIVELY
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING
REDUCTION AT THE BRADY AND JUNCTION TAF SITES. CARRYING TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES 12Z-15Z...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007/ 

UPDATE...
BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS...ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA
THRU 15Z.

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VIS DUE TO FOG THRU 15Z THIS MORNING AT KSOA...KJCT...AND
KBBD...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY 15Z AND IMPROVING TO VFR BY
16Z THRU 09Z. INCLUDED IFR CIGS/VIS AT ABI AS ADVECTION FOG IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.  COULD SEE A REPEAT OF IFR CIGS/VIS AFTER
09Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO MENTION ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007/

SHORT TERM...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS EAST...WITH AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH ISOLATED UPPER 70S...NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY.

LONG TERM...
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...GFS HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN...HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FROPA OF ECMWF...AS THE GFS LATELY
HAS BEEN TO SLOW WITH FROPA. THE TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING AFTERNOON HIGHS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AROUND FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 

TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE FOR MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS
GFS KEEPS 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -7 RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE...CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN DETERMINING AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOW SO FOR NOW HAVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ISOLATED
AREAS  ON THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
THIS SEASON TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP
20 POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FOR
NOW HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN BUT IF TEMPERATURES END UP
BEING COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 80  53  83  61 /  10  10  10  10 
SAN ANGELO 	 82  51  82  59 /  10  10   0   0 
JUNCTION 	 82  51  81  58 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$