000 
FXUS63 KUNR 260749
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
150 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...AT 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW IN CENTRAL
SD WITH CDFNT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO
WRN NEB. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED SW INTO COLORADO WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS FA. SHWS/TSTMS CONT ACRS AREA AND ARE
ASSCD WITH SLOW MVG S/W IN ERN WY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY MOVE SW INTO SWRN
CONUS OVER NEXT TWO DAYS...AS THIS HAPPENS NERN WY/WRN SD WILL
BE ON NRN FRINGE OF UP RIDGE. A SERIES OF S/WS WILL ROTATE ARD
THIS UPPER RIDGE THRU SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWS/TSTMS
TO THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME MODELS HAVING HARD TIME PINNING DOWN EXACTLY WHERE
PCPN WILL BE AND WHEN AS S/WS ROTATE AROUND TROF. WL PUT IN CHC
POPS FOR TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFT/EVNG.
NOT MUCH FAITH IN MODEL QPF AS IT HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE 
THE LAST FEW RUNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AND WE MAY HAVE ONLY OUR 
THIRD DAY WITH BELOW NORAML TEMPS THIS MONTH. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
80S WITH 70S IN BLACK HILLS. WILL SEE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO
90S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

EXTENDED...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN 
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS 
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$