000 
FXUS61 KRLX 301150
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005

.AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)...

2000-3500 FT CLOUD DECK UNDER INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP 
WEST TO EAST AS INVERSION LOWERS.  BORDERING ON MVFR...CIGS MAY 
ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT BEFORE LIFTING OUT.  OTHERWISE W TO SW FLOW 
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT UNDER A MAINLY 
CLEAR SKY.  NO VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGHER AND EVEN MIDDLE CLOUD WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST 
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 356 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005) 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...

SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE THRU OH SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON 
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS ON TRACK TO MISS EVEN FAR NW COUNTIES.  IN ITS WAKE...INVERSION 
WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY...COUNTERACTING DEEPENING MIXING HEIGHT 
ONE USUALLY GETS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
THE AREA TODAY AND MOVES ON ACROSS TONIGHT.

TIME HEIGHTS INDEED SHOW THE CLOUD DECK LOWERING SLIGHTLY TODAY.  
THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AS ANY HEATING WE COULD MANAGE OUGHT 
TO CREATE SOME T-TD SEPARATION AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER.  FLAT 
CLOUD LAYER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT W FLOW MAKING FOR WEAK UPSLOPE 
OUGHT TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE 
THRESHOLD.

WENT WITH BLEND OF ONGOING FORECAST AND 21Z H85 PLUS 10C OFF ETA12 
TO ARRIVE AT HIGHS TODAY...WOUND UP CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER MAV S AND 
WITH A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS N...EXCEPT WITH THE LOWER MET EKN WITH 
LOWEST H85 TEMPERATURES AND MOST PERSISTENT CLOUDS.  THAT LAST ONE 
MAY NEED WATCHED FROM THE GUN WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION THIS 
MORNING.

RADIATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT...LEANED ON LOW SIDE UP 
NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE W TOWARD 
DAWN THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

FAST MID LVL LOW BRINGS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH LATE 
THURS.  NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED ON THE FRONT END GIVEN MOSTLY 
DOWNGLIDE ON THE ISENTROPIC SFC...WHERE HIGHEST SPECIFIC HUMIDITY 
RESIDES.  HWVR GOOD AREA OF DCVA PIVOTING ON THRU AND MODEST EPV FM 
0Z FRI TO 12Z FRI BRINGS A FEW TENTHS TO ERN AREAS.  THIS COUPLED 
WITH LLVL CONV PER NW TRAJ...LGT SN ACCUM IS FCST FOR THE NRN AND 
CNTRL MTNS.  THE LLNDS SHUD SEE A DUSTING AT MOST.  

HIKED UP POPS TO LKLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF WVZ38-46>47 THU 
NGT.  NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE THERMAL FIELD AND 
STRENGTH OF VORT MAX...WHICH ODES HIGHER CONFIDENCE.  PTYPE SHOULD 
BE RA INITIALLY...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -12C THU NGT 
PTYPE SWITCHES TO SN SHORTLY AFT 0Z.

ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN MOMENTARILY THUR NGT INTO FRI.  DID SLOW  
EXODUS OF STRATUS IN THE EKN VCNTY FRI MRNG DUE TO THERMAL TROF AT 
5KFT MSL HANGING ARND LONGER THAN PVS RUNS.  ALTOCU RACES IN FRI 
AFTN FM THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX MAKER.  

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRAB THE HEADLINES OF THIS FCST 
PACKAGE.  NAM AND GFS VERY SIMILAR IN THE MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS 
WITH WARM FRONT APPCHNG TWRDS DAWN SAT (F+84).  BUFKIT SNDGS FM 
VARIOUS POINTS WITHIN THE FA SHOW A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA/SN BEFORE 
GOING TO RAIN.  AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACR SRN KY ENE TO RNK THEN OFF THE 
EAST COAST FRI NGT THRU THE DAY SAT...THIS PUTS PART OF THE CWA IN 
THE WINTRY MIX CORRIDOR.

INCREASED POPS INTO THE LKLY CATEGORY OVER THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  IN 
ADDITION...DROPPED MINT FRI NGT AND MAXT SAT SEVERAL DEGREES WITH 
OVC CONDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.  GFS PRINTS OUT 3/4 INCH OF QPF 
I-64 S AND A LTL LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH NRN AREAS FOR DAY3.  THIS 
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TREMENDOUS H10-H8 DTEMP/DT OF 30C WITH WARM 
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  A WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE HWO TO 
GET THE WORD OUT.  SN AMTNS IN THE MTNS COULD WARRANT HEADLINES OVER 
THE WEEKEND GIVEN A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY 
CROSSING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 101 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005) 

AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)...

VFR SAVE FOR MVFR STRATOCU DECK IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS 
AFTERNOON.  CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL NOT MIX HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM THE 
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION MARKING THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER WILL ACT TO COUNTERACT 
THE NORMAL DIURNAL DEEPENING OF THIS LAYER.

DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON W FLOW...WHICH IS NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL 
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE ANYWAY...WILL BREAK UP THE ABOVE 3KFT DECK 
OVER THE LOWLANDS AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY 
ALTOGETHER BY LATE THIS MORNING.  MVFR DECK IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD 
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.

W FLOW...A BIT MORE NW AND PERHAPS A BIT GUSTY INN THE MOUNTAINS 
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE LIGHT...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 
CALM LATE TODAY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TRM