National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDHFO
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDHFO
Product Timestamp: 2004-11-23 20:00 UTC
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000 FXHW60 PHFO 232021 AFDHFO HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST TUE NOV 23 2004 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI WILL KEEP THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE TODAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. A BROAD SWATCH OF MOISTURE OVER AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING BUT MAY STILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .DISCUSSION... A LOW ALOFT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH...TOWARD THE ISLANDS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THIS LOW IS NOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. WARM...MOIST TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS FARTHER SOUTHWARD... EXPECT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW. THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEEP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INCREASES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE SURFACE AIR AND THE COLDER AIR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS INTO TONIGHT...TROUGHING SOUTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FINALLY REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...RIDGING WESTWARD OF THE STATE WILL TEND TO CLEAR SHOWERS OUT FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND LEAVING THE BIG ISLAND STILL SUSCEPTABLE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN...WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THROUGH TODAY. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. $$ FARRELL