000 
FXUS64 KCRP 021921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
220 PM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FIRING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SEABREEZE AS PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES 
PER GOES SOUNDER. UPPER HIGH CENTERED VAGUELY OVER THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT SW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TANGENTIALLY 
BRINGING HEIGHT RISES AND NET SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA. EXPECT DIURNAL 
SEABREEZE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING OUT AS BOUNDARY 
LAYER DECOUPLES. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...EXPECT PATCHY 
FOG...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ZONE MENTION. 

&&
 
.LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FAVORABLE FLANK OF A 
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE(DELINEATED BY 700HPA TROUGH AXIS) GRADUALLY 
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT ENCOUNTERS NEGATIVE 
OPPOSITION IN THE FORM OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500HPA 
ANTICYCLONE. NOCTURNAL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND/OR LOW-LEVEL 
FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ACT UPON MODEST 
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS(EXCEPT THE FAR 
WEST). LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG PROBABLE IN A 
STABILIZED/DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME. SUBTLE VARIATIONS AROUND 
PERSISTENCE WILL BE APPLIED TO TEMPERATURES. 500HPA ANTICYCLONE 
POSITION VACILLATES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONALLY EXPOSING 
THE REGION TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LESS INHIBITIVE 
SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE GENERALLY AT MARGINAL LEVELS 
BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE 
POPS OVER THE EAST. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/DECOUPLES ADEQUATELY 
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES. 
OSCILLATORY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BRING MARGINAL 
DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL SCEC CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE GEARED TOWARD PERSISTENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.    
        
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI  74 95  77 94  76 / 10 10 05 20 10
VICTORIA        74 98  74 95  75 / 10 10 05 10 05
LAREDO          79 102 78 102 80 / 10 05 05 05 05
ALICE           74 99  74 98  74 / 10 10 05 10 05
ROCKPORT        78 91  79 91  80 / 20 10 05 20 10
COTULLA         75 99  75 97  76 / 10 05 05 05 05

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

71/SHORT-TERM
85/LONG-TERM