444 
FXUS64 KLIX 280841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
340 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY OBSERVING SOME CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT 
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE FRINGE OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE NOSING 
INTO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS WOULD BE 
TYPICAL OF A LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME NORMALLY...BUT DISTRIBUTION 
SUGGEST OTHERWISE. DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE BAROCLINIC FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE 
IT WOULD SEEM OPTIMISTIC TO LOWER POPS AFTER A VERY WET PAST 
WEEK...PRUDENCE SUGGEST MAINTAINING HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS FOR A 
FEW MORE DAYS. GFS MODEL DOES NOT FULLY BUILD A CLEAN BERMUDA RIDGE 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR STEADY STATE SEASONABLE DAYTIME 
CONVECTION. AS SHORT-WAVES CONTNUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF 
STATES...WILL LEAVE UNCERTAINTIES ON TIMING AND COVERAGE EACH DAY 
BEFORE DEEPER LAYERED MARINE LAYER BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE LATTER 
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL BE GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS 
GUIDANCE ON BOTH POPS AND TEMPS. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR PULSE 
SEVERE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN TODAY...GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNBURST 
PROFILE. WILL LOOK INTO THIS MORE FOR HWO ISSUANCE.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 88 69 88 70 / 60 30 70 30
BTR 89 71 88 71 / 60 30 70 30
MSY 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 30
GPT 88 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 30
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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