901 
FXUS65 KFGZ 280430
AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST TUE APR 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM WILL APPROACH THE STATE BRINGING VERY 
WINDY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT 
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG 
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE WEEKEND...A RETURN TO MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. 
&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WAS LOCATED 
OVER THE WASHINGTON/CANADA BORDER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TO 
DIVE SOUTHWARD. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EXTENDING FROM 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PLACE ARIZONA UNDER A 
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN 
RESPONSE. THE ONLY REAL QUESTION THIS EVENING IS TIMING. THE 00Z RUN 
OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH 
SOME AND THIS KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MOVING OVER ARIZONA 
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE REALLY ONLY 
LOOKING AT A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL 
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING FOR NOW BUT IF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY 35 TO 45 KNOTS WINDS AT 700 MB LEVEL THE HIGH 
WIND WATCH WILL NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY. LOOKS LIKE 
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. COOL NORTHEAST WINDS SET UP FOR 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO EXPECT ANY TEMPERATURE WARMUP TO BE ON THE 
GRADUAL SIDE. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. CURRENT FORECAST 
SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER 
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. 

MCCOLLUM

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...PUBLIC ZONES 
004>008...010...012...015...039...040 FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH 1200 AM MST THURSDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 108-118-137...FROM 1100 AM THROUGH 800 PM MST WEDNESDAY.

WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARIZONA...PUBLIC ZONES 
011..013..014..016>018...037 FROM 300 PM MST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

$$