000 
FXUS66 KPQR 212229
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING.  SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING MOVES
SOUTH TAKING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH OF AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE PACIFIC BY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS.  HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO IDAHO BY SUNDAY.  NON PRECIPITATION
PATTERN CONTINUES THOUGH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS.  NEXT
PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY MOVING OVER AREA MONDAY.  A
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEK WITH A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FINAL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL ORE MOVES INTO NRN CA
BY LATER TONIGHT AND INCREASES N FLOW ALOFT.  THIS ENDS PRECIPITATION
PATTERN HOWEVER DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRES STAYS MAINLY N OF AREA
ALLOWING MARINE HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER AREA.  LOTS OF CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER AREA WILL NOT BREAK MUCH THIS EVE EXCEPT COAST AND
WITH MORE OF A MARINE AMS OVER AREA LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT. 
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT FROM GETTING EXTREMELY COLD THOUGH MOST
AREA STILL BELOW FREEZING.  MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL TONIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT AND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO MET.  HIGHS PRES OVER AREA
SAT SHIFTS INTO IDA BY SUN.  WEAK FLOW OVER AREA SAT KEEPS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG OVER INLAND VALLEYS WITH COAST CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AND
MOUNTAINS FAIRLY SUNNY.  AS HIGH SHIFTS E SUN MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP
ALONG E SLOPES OF CASCADES.  HIGH PRES OVER IDA SUN KEEPS LOW LEVEL
FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT.  THIS KEEPS LOW CLOUDS/AND FOG MOST OF DAY HOWEVER
ENOUGH E FLOW WILL BREAK AREAS ALONG COL RIVER.  PAC FRONT WILL START
PUSHING CLOUDS INTO N PART OF AREA SUN AFTERNOON BUT WILL HOLD
PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT.  WITH HIGH PRES MORE OF MARINE
ORIGINS AND MOVES INTO GT BASIN IT WILL ONLY PICK UP LOCAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF ERN BASINS RATHER THEN COLD AMS FROM CANADIAN
HIGH.  WITH THIS IN MIND DONT FEEL SNOW THREAT W OF GORGE LIKELY SUN
NIGHT AND EARLY MON AS PAC FRONT MOVES IN.  GORGE MAY GET CLOSE AND
WILL START PRECIPITATION AS MIXED BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE COLDER AMS E
SIDE BEFORE GOING FOR SIG SNOW GORGE.  FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA MON
AND SHOULD BE E OF AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE
BEHIND FRONT TURNING PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS AND ENDING ANY SNOW
THREAT FOR GORGE.  KOSOVITZ
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE 
WEATHER PERIOD. GFS MODEL TIMING IS VARYING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS 
BUT THE EFFECT IS STILL THE SAME FOR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CRUSH. WARM 
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY WILL BOOST THE FREEZING LEVEL 
OVER THE AREA WHILE PRODUCING PLENTY OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES WITH 
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AT HIGHWAY PASS LEVELS AND SKI AREAS. A BRIEF 
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE 
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT SETTLES TOWARD US WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING 
IS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS, THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ON 
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE IT IS CHILLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW 
SHOWERS DOWN TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. AFTER 
THAT, THE GFS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WHOLE SCENARIO TO 
REPEAT ITSELF OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.   

SALTENBERGER

&&
     
PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 100188 PDX 100178 SLE 100178 EUG 400168
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA THIS EVENING.

&&
$$

120 
FXUS66 KPQR 222218
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...WITH FLURRIES TO LOW
ELEVATIONS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WEEK WILL SEE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS ESPECIALLY
NORTH. WEST HILLS TV TOWER TEMPS CONTINUE BELOW FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY...WITH THE FLOW TURNING MORE
ONSHORE CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL PRECIPITATION TO TURN TO RAIN. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER...WITH FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY. QPFS
SUPPORT FAIRLY GOOD SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERY WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

A STRONGER OVERRUNNING EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...SUPPORTED BY 120 TO 140 KT JET. MAY GET WINTER STORM SNOW
TOTALS IN THE CASCADES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...STRONG UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WAVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MORE
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FLOW BACKS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONT
COMING THROUGH. LOOKS SHOWERS FRIDAY. SATURDAY A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT
WILL STAY WITH CURRENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HOLIDAY TRAVEL THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT. SPECIAL STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&

.MARINE...WILL HAVE A ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR DUE TO VERY STRONG
EBBS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WAVE
WATCH III MODELS SHOWS SEAS PUSHING 20 KT MID WEEK DUE TO UPCOMING
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. TOLLESON
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 469799 PDX 439788 SLE 329788 EUG 219788
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TONIGHT
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE SUNDAY AND
          SUNDAY NIGHT..
&&
$$