FXUS64 KBMX 200811
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
305 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

CDFNT TO OUR WEST THIS MRNG CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN MO INTO
CNTRL TX WITH SFC WEDGE FROM CAROLINAS W INTO NE AL.  AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST ACRS CWA BUT RATHER STABLE AT THIS TIME.  MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT CDFNT SHUD PUSH INTO NW AL BY 00Z.  EXPECT
MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS AREA TODAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS
LIKELY NW ZONES DUE TO APPROACH OF CDFNT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS CDFNT
MOVES INTO AREA TONIGHT...MARGINAL INSTABILITY...HIGH PW VALUES...AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD COMBINE TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT.  EVEN THOUGH FFG VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SOME THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT.
WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.              .

CDFNT SLOWS AS IT MOVES INTO AREA TONIGHT AND SFC WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG IT AND MOVE SLOWY E ON WED.  THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH WED...AND PROBABLY INTO WED NIGHT...ESPCLY IN
SERN SECTIONS.  BY THURSDAY MRNG LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE MOVING INTO
SRN GA WITH DCRSG CLDS SERN SECTIONS.  DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AFTER THAT TIME THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

BHM 075/063 074/058 078 5752
MGM 080/067 076/063 080 4775

.BHM...NONE.