865 
FXUS61 KCAR 201813 AAB
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
110 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002

.UPDATED...
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING OVER WASHINGTON...HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...WITH AREAS OF FOG FORMING. UPDATE TO DROP ADVISORY
ZONES 15 THRU 17...AND ADD ZONE 32 TO THAT SPLIT. ALSO ADDED FOG IN THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY
AND RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO DAY PACKAGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TODAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TONIGHT. MODELS SPITTING OUT AROUND .75 OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND OVER AN INCH ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS.

NOW THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ICE WILL NORTHERN MAINE GET. 00Z KCAR
SOUNDING INDICATES WARM AIR ALREADY ALOFT STARTING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
7000 FT. PRECIP SHOULD START JUST BEFORE NOONTIME WITH RAIN SOUTH OF
HOULTON-GREENVILLE LINE AND FREEZING RAIN ABOVE THAT. PRECIP WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ON THE ONSET SO EXPECT JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED SOUNDING SHOW LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z
WHEN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM RAIN DROPS
SO ANY AREAS NOT ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT NOT SEE MUCH ICING THIS EVENING.
ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR ALWAYS SLOW TO SCOUR
OUT BUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
RAIN. WITHOUT A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...COLD AIR WILL FINALLY
GIVE WAY LATE TODAY. HAVE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A COATING TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AS YOU GO NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BEFORE ENDING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. DRY
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
DOWNEAST SECTIONS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

A QUICK MOVING TROUGH MOVING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY TO EJECT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AND AS TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS STATEWIDE WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

UNTIL TONIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER
GULF STATES ON XMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC STATES XMAS DAY. BUT
NOW ECMWF...GEM...AND GFS MOVING LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW FOR WED BUT IF TREND CONTINUES
WITH NEXT RUN...MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT SNOWSTORM FOR XMAS DAY.

COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN PART OF LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL
NOSE INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY. 925MB WINDS FORECASTED AT 56 KTS
AND OUR LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH GALE FOR LATE TODAY. NOT AS IMPRESS WITH GALES FOR SATURDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST
GOING AT THIS TIME.

.CAR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TODAY...ZONES 1>6-10-11-31.
       GALE WARNING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

APFFEL