021 
FXUS66 KLOX 072105
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT MON OCT 7 2002

TEMPS UP JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SAVE THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST...WHERE
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FAILED TO SURFACE AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. LAGUNA PEAK
OBS SHOWED PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 1PM...BUT NOTHING OF
THE SORT ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TOWARD NEAR NEUTRAL VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LOCAL WINDS THROUGH/BELOW FAVORED
PASSES AND CANYONS. SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY WITH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND LOWERING
THICKNESSES. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED BACK OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG IN NEAR NEUTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD START
DRIFTING OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT THAT GREAT IN HANDLING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT AVN/MRF
SOLUTION KEEPS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER SOCAL. EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE MUCH HIGHER
AMPLITUDE SOLUTION BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY EVENT IN
EITHER CASE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH ON HIGH AMPLITUDE SOLUTION
AS WINDS ACROSS DESERTS/MOUNTAINS BECOME AN ISSUE.

LAX 0000. TANABE

.LOX...NONE.