613 
FXUS63 KICT 030836
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHCS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS.

WILL USE A BLEND OF AVN/ETA THIS TIME AROUND...LEANING TOWARD ETA 
SFC TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW...ALONG WITH PRECIP FIELD FCSTS THROUGH 
48 HOURS.

LATEST EVENING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE SHOW TWO DISTINCT UPPER 
WAVES...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AREA 
PROFILERS INDICATE 40-50KT LLJ WITH WEAK UPPER DIV INDICATED AT 
300MB VIA THE PROFILER NETWORK.  EVENING 700MB ANALYSIS SHOWED +12 
TO +16C CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH BASE 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER FORCED BY STRONG OUTFLOW...WHICH IS 
CAUSING HEAT BURSTS ACROSS CENTRAL KS AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TODAY...UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS KS. 
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE 
EXITING TO THE NE. FCST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS FCSTS 
SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM GREAT BEND TO SALINA. 
ETA FCST SFC WIND/FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE 
HOTTEST TEMPS IN THAT REGION. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT IMPACT 
OF HIGH/MID CLOUDS...HOWEVER GIVEN VERY WARM START AND THE SPECTER 
OF FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL UP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. AS FOR 
CONVECTIVE CHCS TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASE 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT WHERE 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 102-105F MAY BE REACHED. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP 
SLIGHT CHCS FOR CENTRAL KS.

TONIGHT...AT THE MOMENT DO NOT SEE ANY DISTINCT UPPER WAVE THAT 
WOULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE FORCING 
WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC OMEGA/LOW LEVEL WAA AND MASS 
CONVERGENCE WITH LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY 
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING WITHIN EAST FLOW NORTH OF 
THE SFC FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS 
NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB. WHILE STRONGEST WAA/UPPER DIV SHOULD DRAW 
THE COMPLEX EAST TOWARD OMA/MKC. CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS STRONG 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. 40 PERCENT CHCS SEEM 
REASONABLE FOR CENTRAL KS. AS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WILL LEAVE THE 
CURRENT 20 PERCENT WORDING...DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHC OF A HIGH BASE 
STORM DRIFTING INTO AREAS WEST OF ICT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY 
CONDS ACROSS THE SE. 

TUES...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS AZ. 
THE FCST THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE 
EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER LOOKING AT ISENTROPIC PLOTS AND 
THE OVERALL UPPER RIDGING...THE EXACT NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER IS 
DIFFICULT TO FCST. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA WITH FRONTAL 
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS OF 3-8KFT ACROSS CENTRAL KS 
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOME COMBO OF MID CLD ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP TOWARD FWC/ETA GUIDANCE AND 
WILL KEEP GENERIC 50 POPS WITH AREA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 
THE UPPER JET.

TUES NIGHT-WEDS...SHOULD SEE MULTICELL LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ALONG 
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
PRECIP WEDS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN THE MORNING OTHERWISE IT 
SHOULD BE DRY. WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST MAX TEMPS TUES NIGHT AND WEDS.

BEYOND WEDS...SEEMS THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE 
EXTENDED. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE ROCKIES 
THIS WEEKEND. IN THE ABSCENCE OF ANY BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP THE FCST 
DRY...FOR THE MOMENT.

FCSTID =11
ICT   96  73  85  60 /   5  20  50  60
HUT  100  71  82  59 /  10  30  50  40
EWK   96  70  83  59 /  10  30  50  40
EQA   94  71  85  60 /  10  20  50  50
WLD   94  71  88  61 /   5  10  50  60
RSL   97  67  76  56 /  20  40  50  30
GBD  101  69  79  57 /  20  40  50  30
SLN   98  67  76  56 /  10  40  50  30
MPR   97  70  83  59 /  10  30  50  40
CFV   92  73  90  60 /   5  10  50  60
CNU   92  73  87  60 /   5  10  50  60
K88   92  72  85  59 /  10  10  50  60

.ICT...NONE.