192 
FXUS63 KABR 030801
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN DEALS WITH PCPN CHANCES. 
SFC BOUNDARY CONTS TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM CWA. 
MODELS KEEP SW FLOW OVER CWA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY WITH MINOR WAVES 
ROTATING OVER CWA. OFFSETTING THIS IS THAT 7H THETA-E FORCING REALLY 
DIMINISHES FAST TODAY...WITH DOWNGLIDE NOTED BY 00Z ON 300K AND 305K 
LAYERS. AS FAST AS SHOWERS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING THAT WERE MOVING 
NE THROUGH THE CWA...AM MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST. SFC 
TRAJECTORIES CONT TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY FLOW AT SFC. WITH 
AFOREMENTIONED WAVES CONT TO EJECT OVER SECTIONS OF CWA...FORESEE A 
LOT OF CLOUDS TODAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN. THIS WILL ALSO 
HELP TO KEEP A LID ON TEMPS.

OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MOST OF ACTIVITY CONT TO BE FOCUSED 
SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...CLOSER TO SFC AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
BOUNDARIES. STILL SHOULD SEE A GOOD LAYER OF CLOUDS. 

FCST BECOMES A BIT FUZZY FOR TUESDAY. THE ETA FORMS A WEAK SFC LOW 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG 5H WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NW. THE AVN KEEPS 
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH OVER CWA. HOWEVER...IF YOU LOOK AT THE 85H-7H RH 
FIELDS FROM BOTH MODELS...BOTH ARE VERY SIMILAR. THE ETA DOES SHOW 
SOME MINOR 7H THETA-E FORCING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOTHING REALLY NOTED 
ISENTROPICALLY. THE ETA DOES PRINT OUT SOME MINOR QPF FROM 18Z 
TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS SECTIONS OF NRN AND ERN CWA...ALTHO 
AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH. SINCE WE SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE 
GETTING PCPN STARTED ACROSS THESE SECTIONS OF CWA...WILL KEEP DRY 
FCST GOING FOR TUESDAY. WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR THE AFTN 
PACKAGE.

.ABR...NONE.
HINTZ