038 
FXUS61 KBGM 030013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

SAT PIX SHOW AN XTNSV AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLD OVER THE GTLAKES 
PROGRESSING EWD. MDLS DONT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.
SOME OF THIS CLD MAY THIN OUT OR BCM MORE SCT AS IT APRCHS THE 
RGN...BUT IT CRNTLY APPEARS THAT BKN-OVC AC AND CI WILL SPREAD ACRS 
THE RGN LATER THIS EVNG. AM TEMPTED TO GO WITH INCREASING CLDS FOR 
TNGT AND MOSTLY CLDY FOR TMRW GIVEN THESE TRENDS. 

ATTM AM PLANNING ON A PARTLY CLDY FCST FOR AREAS THAT CRNTLY HAVE A 
MOSTLY CLEAR FCST FOR TNGT. FROST ADVISORIES NOT NEEDED AND MAY 
TWEEK MINS UP A TAD. WILL ALSO TWEEK 2ND PD TO INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY 
(VS MOSTLY) TMRW MRNG. WONT BE SUPRISED IF WE END UP MOSTLY CLDY 
TMRW...WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT OUR MAXES WILL PRBLY BE A FEW DEG LOWER 
THAN CRNTLY FCST. WILL LET MIDSHIFT CONSIDER THAT. 

PREV AFD BLO...
--------------------------------------------

SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO W NY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CU TO 
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AND CI TO MOVE IN LATE. NOT A CLASSIC 
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN NOT 
ISSUING ANY FROST ADVISORIES. THE WINDS WILL NOT DECREASE UNTIL 
LATER THIS EVE. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S 
WITH WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS. ALSO THE NIGHTS ARE FAIRLY 
SHORT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE APPROACHING.

AN 850 MB RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP THE FA DRY 
MONDAY. EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH. MODELS 
ARE STILL DISSIMILAR IN REGARD TO PRECIP CHCS MONDAY NIGHT. THE AVN 
KEEPS THE FA DRY WHILE THE ETA AND NGM BRING PRECIP INTO THE FA WITH 
A WARM FRONT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITY WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A 
30 PERCENT CHC OF SHRA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE 
STALLED OUT WARM FONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA. 
THE MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFT SO WILL 
MENTION A CHC OF TSRA ALSO. 

WENT WITH A COMPROMISE WHERE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE 
NOTED.     
         
.BGM...NONE.

SMF/RHB