000 
TTAA00 KSPI 020147

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
745 PM CST FRI MAR 1 1996

BOTH MDL RUNS WERE TOO SLOW ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FIRST TROF AND ITS
POST.  TROF PASSED SPI AND PIA AT 22Z...DEC AT 00Z...CMI WL SHLD BE ARD
02Z.  BOTH MDLS HOWEVER WERE GOOD W/ THE SECOND TROF POST AT 00Z. DVN
SOUNDING IS GOOD AND SATURATE AT MID AND HIGH LVLS W/ GOOD RH EVEN AT
LOW LVLS.  ILX WAS MOIST AT MID AND HI LVLS...DRY LOW. NGM HAD MORE RH
THAN ETA W/ THE 2ND S/W SO NGM IS CHOICE.  MDL HAD SOME LIFT ACRS CWA W/
BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH. RH INCRS TO 90 PCT AT 850 TOM AFT 12Z.
CONSIDERING ALL THIS...BKN CLDS WL REMAIN OVRNITE AND TOM MORN.  W/
GOOD SUBSIDENCE TOM AFTN SKIES COULD BCM SCT.  WNDS SHLD REMAIN W
OVRNITE AND SWITCH TO NW TOM MORN.  10 TO 20 MPH GOOD TON BUT INCRSG TO
15 TO 25 TOM W/ NXT S/W.  CRNT FCST HANDLES ALL THIS OK XCPT FOR TOM
WNDS.  FLURRIES ALSO LOOKS GOOD SINCE PLENTY OF RH AND SINCE ITS
COLD...ANY SQUEEZE WLD PROD S- OR S--.  TMPS HOWEVER NEED TO BE
TWEEKED.  CRNT TMPS 5 TO 6 DEGRS ABV FWC GUIDANCE.  WITH CLD DVR AND
GUSTY WINDS...PREFER WRMR FAN NUMBERS OF LOW 20S FOR LOWS.  CAA CONTS
TOM SO TMPS MAY BE HARD TO REACH LOW 30S.  LIKE MID TO UPPER 20S BEST
FOR MOST OF CWA...WITH LOW 30S FOR EFF AND LWV.  NOT GOING TO MESS W/
POPS BUT I LIKE CRNT WORDING OF CHC FOR S--. 

PIA  21/26 21
SPI  23/28 11
DEC  23/29 11
CMI  22/27 11

AUTEN