977 
ACUS03 KWNS 161925
SWODY3
SPC AC 161924

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley
on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it
moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong
cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across
the OH and TN Valleys. 

At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and
reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.

Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as
far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the
ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit
heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.
However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least
result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low
even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft
will be warmer.

Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during
the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow
off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with
activity along the cold front.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$