495 
ACUS03 KWNS 060819
SWODY3
SPC AC 060818

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Saturday
evening/night, across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
As one shortwave impulse moves offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast early, a vigorous shortwave impulse will dig from the
Northern Great Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest. This will
support greater amplification of an expansive upper trough east of
the Rockies with a ridge building across the West. Cyclogenesis
should occur across the Lower MO Valley, tracking east into the OH
vicinity by 12Z Sunday. 

...Southeast...
Forcing for ascent appears nebulous during the day Saturday in the
wake of the aforementioned trough passage along the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, and a remnant zonal mid-level flow regime across the
Southeast. The prior D2 cold front should stall and undergo a period
of frontolysis. Remnant outflow boundaries from overnight/Saturday
morning convection may aid in isolated convection during the
afternoon, with perhaps a few strong storms in parts of the interior
Deep South.

By evening into Saturday night, mid-level height falls will increase
downstream of the amplifying central states trough, and the residual
surface front should accelerate eastward from the Lower MS to TN
Valleys. Strengthening flow fields will be most prominent in the
mid-levels, largely relegated to overnight. The 00Z GFS appears to
be an outlier with a lack of appreciable convection, perhaps related
to depictions of weak lapse rates and low RH in the mid-levels. The
rest of guidance consensus indicates increasing nocturnal
development along the aforementioned cold front and downstream wedge
front near the southern Appalachians. Both regimes appear supportive
of a low-probability severe highlight.

..Grams.. 11/06/2025

$$