260 
ACUS01 KWNS 192001
SWODY1
SPC AC 191959

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds remain possible across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast this afternoon and evening, the threat for organized
severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the existing General
Thunderstorm areas. A band of low-topped convection is moving across
eastern PA toward northern NJ this afternoon, with sporadic strong
to severe gusts noted with this feature. Organized convection is not
expected due to negligible buoyancy, but strong deep-layer winds
associated with a powerful mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold
front moving across the eastern CONUS will continue to support
strong/damaging gusts both near and removed from any remaining
convection.

..Dean.. 12/19/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.

$$