296 FXUS62 KMLB 292350 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 650 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 - A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches continues. Entering the surf is not advised! - Tonight into Tuesday, a strong cold front will move across the peninsula, bringing below normal temperatures areawide into the New Year. - A Freeze Watch has been issued for Lake and Inland Volusia counties for Wednesday morning, when wind chill values areawide are forecast to reach the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Now-Tonight...A picture-perfect afternoon with little to no cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. It is a bit breezy at times with gusts nearing 20 mph, especially at the coast. Our focus is now turning toward the northwest as a potent cold front moves into north Florida, accompanied by increased cloud cover and gusty northwest winds. While clouds will gradually overspread the area from north to south ahead of the front, the FROPA itself looks to begin after dark, north of I-4. Colder and drier air is forecast to surge southward with the front clearing the area before sunrise Tuesday. Along the front, the chance of a light shower or sprinkle remains generally 10-15 percent and focused closer to the coast. However, measurable rainfall is unlikely tonight. Temperatures nosedive after midnight, reaching the 40s and 50s by daybreak tomorrow. With breezy to gusty northwest winds in play, wind chill values are forecast to range widely from north to south early Tuesday. Wind chills near freezing (low/mid 30s) are forecast along and north of I-4, followed by the upper 30s to mid 40s across central portions of the area. Treasure Coast locations will likely see values range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Surface high pressure gradually fills in behind the cold front on Tuesday, expanding southeast from the ArkLaTex to the central Gulf Coast. Tuesday will remain breezy at times as NW 850mb flow continues to usher in a drier and cooler airmass. While there will be some mid-high level clouds, we should see a good deal of sunshine as well. Regardless, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 50s north of Orlando/Cape Canaveral, with highs across the southern half of ECFL in the low to mid 60s. Skies clear out Tuesday night, setting the stage for a very efficient cooldown into early Wednesday. Min-Temp EFI values are moderately negative and HREF probabilities of temperatures 32 degrees or less range from 20-50% (or locally higher) across interior ECFL Wednesday morning. This puts the forecast in perspective, with Wednesday morning being the coldest morning of the next seven days. Wind chill values sink into the mid 20s to mid 30s, especially across inland locations. With the potential for near or sub-freezing temperatures for a couple hours or more in Lake and inland Volusia counties, a Freeze Watch has been issued there for Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed in future forecasts to account for sub-30 degree wind chills affecting a sizable portion of east- central Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday-Monday (modified previous)...Persistent W/NW flow aloft will allow occasional mid-level troughs to traverse the region, as well as keep "lower mid-level heights" over the area. The much cooler/drier airmass will come with PWATs well under an inch which will keep PoPs absent from the forecast at least into early Sat. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to transition across the Deep South/Gulf to the FL peninsula. Another cold front may push through late next weekend, but this far out it appears it will be on a weakening trend by the time it makes it into central FL. For now, we carry a small PoP (~20-30%) on Sat/Sat night. Otherwise, the extended is mostly dry. Skies look to remain MClear to PCloudy for much of the extended. High temps for Wed nearly mirror those on Tue - perhaps a couple degrees cooler, generally in the 60s Thu, U60s to L70s on Fri, and a return into the 70s as we continue the warming trend Sat-Mon. Winds remain forecast around 5 mph for Wed/Thu/Fri nights, so wind chills won't be as great a concern as they were Tue night into Wed. However, mins Wed/Thu nights will still find their way down into the M-U30s to around 40F across much of the interior and perhaps coastal Volusia with L-M40s along the immediate coastline southward. At least some patchy frost cannot be ruled out Thursday morning, especially over the interior. Mins Fri night into Sat morning generally in the 40s to L50s areawide. A slow warming trend Sat/Sun overnight with generally 50s for lows areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Deteoriating boating conditions are forecast tonight into Tuesday as a gusty northwest wind builds seas behind a strong cold front. Speeds of 20-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt are anticipated late tonight through mid morning Tuesday, particularly north of Sebastian Inlet. This will build seas to 4-7 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in place, beginning at 7 PM for the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters, expanding southward in time to include all of the local Atlantic by 1 AM Tuesday. Poor to hazardous seas linger through Tuesday evening before improving mid to late week. Isolated to scattered showers are possible along tonight's cold front as it passes from north to south over the local waters. Most of the shower activity will drift south of the Treasure Coast offshore waters by mid morning Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 650 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A period of MVFR CIGs will precede/accompany a cold front this evening and overnight with little to no precipitation. Highest probs for MVFR at MCO is 03Z-05Z but could start a bit earlier so have inserted a TEMPO from 00Z-03Z. Gusty NW winds will spread SE behind the front overnight and continue Tue with gusts up to 20KT. VFR conds Tue with sct-bkn cirrus. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A strong cold front is set to move through tonight into early Tuesday. Breezy to gusty conditions on Tuesday, combined with low relative humidity, will lead to heightened fire sensitivity across east-central Florida. Winds at or below 10 mph for the remainder of the week will limit the overall fire sensitivity, but humidity values are forecast to remain low (near or below 30 percent) through at least Thursday. Temperatures and overall moisture gradually recover late week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 41 58 34 59 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 45 60 37 59 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 47 62 37 62 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 50 64 37 63 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 41 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 44 59 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 45 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 50 65 36 63 / 10 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for FLZ041-044-144. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ572. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Kelly