552 FXUS64 KLIX 172327 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 527 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 - The next disturbance expected to bring isolated showers to the area through Wednesday Night. - Confidence increasing for the potential of widespread fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Location confidence is highest along and west of I-59. A dense fog advisory has been issued for our entire area for Thursday morning. - The next front arrives Thursday, with light to moderate showers and a few storms expected. Some stronger storms possible near the coast/marine areas Thursday morning. - Turning cooler Friday, but not anticipating freezing temperatures following this front with a quick warm up expected into the upcoming weekend back into the 70's. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Tonight through Friday morning, a frontal system will be moving through the area, enhancing rain chances for the area. Looking at the models, scattered to numerous rain showers will be possible off and on through Thursday night. Some gusty winds (30-50mph) and lightning will be the main concerns within stronger showers/storms, especially Thursday afternoon, but not overly concerned about severe weather or flash flooding threats with this frontal system. Due to the increased moisture and other favorable conditions, widespread fog concerns Wednesday night/ Thursday morning will be the biggest concern weather wise. The short term models are showing medium to high probabilities (30-60%) of seeing fog development, especially for our northwest area, but chances are also medium (30-50%) for areas elsewhere. This will likely present like areas of patchy dense fog. This could impact travel, especially for roads over water features (so a large majority of our area). A dense fog advisory has been issued for our entire land and marine area for tonight into Thursday morning. It is also noteworthy that we are also concerned about seeing river fog now that water temperatures are a bit cooler as we get further into the winter season. Low temperatures on the backside of the front on Friday morning will likely drop to the low 40s, but will not approach freezing anywhere, based on the forecast. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 The long term forecast (Friday through Tuesday) will be generally dry overall and mild with no major systems expected. Low temperatures Saturday morning will still be quite cool due to continuing cold air advection on the backside of the frontal system. Lows will be in the low 40s and upper 30s, but conditions are not expected to approach freezing for our area at all. Conditions will start to warm Sunday through mid week as onshore flow resumes and warmer air advects into the area. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Mostly MVFR to IFR conditions prevail due to lower ceilings. Brief periods of rain showers may cause lower visibilities and ceilings tonight with frequency increasing beginning 09Z and continuing through 18Z and clearing to the east, so PROB30 groups are in effect throughout the forecast at all area airports to reflect these conditions. Additionally, dense fog is likely at all area airports, which will drop conditions to LIFR for low visibilities and ceilings for a few hours around daybreak. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 A dense fog advisory is in effect for all marine areas due to increased impacts expected, especially in protected nearshore waters and lakes. Winds shift from the SE going into Thursday ahead of the next front sweeping across the area. Showers and a few storms will be possible Wednesday night with a disturbance ahead of the main front, with another round of showers and storms Thursday. Following the front, winds will increase 15-20kts to 20-25kts for 20-60nm offshore Gulf zones and out of the north, likely needing Small Craft Advisories generally from Thursday night through Friday night. High pressure settles into the region late-week into the weekend bringing calm winds and waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 54 72 42 59 / 50 60 30 0 BTR 56 76 44 63 / 30 40 20 0 ASD 55 73 45 63 / 60 70 20 0 MSY 59 75 51 62 / 60 60 10 0 GPT 57 69 48 62 / 70 90 30 0 PQL 55 71 46 62 / 60 90 30 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DS MARINE...MSW