828 FXUS64 KLCH 171122 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 522 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers with above normal temperatures will remain in the forecast through Thursday. - A cold front will move through Thursday evening to bring cooler, but more seasonable temperatures by Friday, briefly. - Warmth and humidity quickly return Saturday and beyond as onshore flow becomes established through the remainder of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 A shortwave trough is traversing the ArkLaTex region this afternoon, with light to moderate morning showers waning into the evening hours. Southerly flow aloft will extend the marine boundary layer further inland today, providing near-normal highs beneath mostly cloudy skies. A secondary shortwave trekking across the Midwest will phase together Thursday with strengthening onshore flow. Warm air advection will briefly hedge highs into the mid-70s ahead of the front associated with this larger system. That said, forcing dynamics will be poor across the forecast area, given the stronger ascent forecast will be located well north. A few scattered showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder, will be possible during the afternoon, but the forecast holds back from it being a washout. With the stronger pressure gradient seen across the Missouri Valley, winds veering out of the north will be moderate through the morning hours, Friday. Thus, cooler but near-normal temperatures are likely while winds ease late in the afternoon and become light easterlies by dusk. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Trending into the early weekend, the potential for marine fog increases as a southerly regime sets in. High pressure will migrate and center over the Carolinas, assisting in establishing southerly flow across southeast TX and southwest LA through the remainder of the forecast period. With nearshore waters trending around 60°F while humid air consisting of dewpoints in the mid-60s flows over them, chances of fog will likely increase during the nocturnal hours. Overall, the forecast trends toward the dry side during the long range with respect to falling precipitation. Highs will creep back into the mid-to-upper 70s beginning Saturday through the remainder of the period. Deterministic guidance is a bit overzealous with chances of isolated pop-ups, whereas a blended guidance approach keeps these chances very slim—under 10% Sunday and Monday. A closer look at projected mid-level atmospheric profiles reveals a subsidence layer around 3km AGL, which would hinder developing cumulus. Hereafter, upper-level flow continues to broaden and build ridging across Mexico. This developing pattern will further facilitate above-normal temperatures through next Tuesday. It is worth noting the long-range forecast discussion is congruent with the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook, suggesting above-normal temperatures will persist well through the holiday week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 An upper level disturbance will help bring some scattered light rain showers, especially during the morning hours, although some shower activity may linger past 17/18z. Conditions for the most part are expected to remain at VFR levels during the day. Tonight, a more southeast low level flow will develop bringing in an increase in Gulf moisture. This will help increase low clouds and fog with MVFR conditions after 18/00z becoming IFR by 18/06z. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 A light to moderate east flow is possible through early Thursday before the next cold front moves into the central Gulf. Winds will veer south through the afternoon then turn quickly offshore and strengthen Friday morning and a brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed during daytime hours. A return to onshore flow occurs by late Friday with warm moist air moving inland once again to the rest of the period. Cool shelf waters combined with warm moisture return and mostly calm conditions will likely bring back the occurrence of marine fog by the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 RH increases today toward 70 to 80 percent today and Thursday. A disturbance moving across the region will bring continued rain chances through early Thursday ahead of a strong cold front. Wetting rainfall totals are not forecast. A brief period of strong north winds will bring south cool and dry air again on Friday where minimum RH drops toward 30-45%. However, winds turn south again by late Friday bringing heat and humidity right back into the region through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 52 73 39 / 40 10 40 10 LCH 66 57 75 44 / 50 10 30 0 LFT 69 57 77 45 / 20 20 30 10 BPT 66 57 75 44 / 60 20 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07