048 FXUS62 KJAX 161059 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 559 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Freeze Warning and Widespread Frost through Early this Morning Across Southeast GA and Inland Portions of Nassau County. Hard Freeze Ongoing for Much of Inland Southeast GA Early this Morning. - Small Craft Advisories Continue for the Northeast FL Waters through this Morning. - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today. - Frost Possible for Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Late Friday Night and Early Saturday Morning && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Stratocumulus cloud cover will continue to occasionally move over the northeast Florida terminals through early Wednesday morning, while VFR conditions prevail at SSI through at least sunset this evening. MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet are expected to overspread A period of VFR conditions at the Duval County terminals overnight will likely end during the predawn hours, with MVFR ceilings around 1,500-2,000 feet are expected to overspread the northeast FL terminals as the day progresses. Ceilings will then likely gradually lower after sunset, and we felt confident enough to indicate IFR conditions developing towards 05Z Wednesday, with stratocumulus likely edging northward along the Atlantic coast and reaching the SSI terminal before the conclusion of this TAF period just after midnight on Wednesday night. Northerly surface winds at SGJ will increase to 10-15 knots and gusty towards 15Z, while speeds elsewhere generally remain in the 5-10 knot range through sunset. Wind speeds will diminish after sunset. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overnight surface analysis depicts weakening Arctic high pressure (1030 millibars) centered over the Deep South. Meanwhile, coastal troughing remains situated over the east central and northeast FL Atlantic waters. Aloft...troughing extending along the U.S. eastern seaboard was progressing slowly eastward, with a subtle reinforcing shortwave diving southeastward across the FL peninsula within a northwesterly mid-level flow pattern. Meanwhile, flat ridging was building over the southern Plains states and the lower Mississippi Valley, downstream of a southern stream trough that extends from the Desert Southwest southwestward through Baja California. Coastal troughing continues to lock shallow moisture in place below a subsidence inversion based around 950 millibars (around 2,000 feet) per the evening sounding at Jacksonville. This moisture was keeping a stratocumulus deck in place across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA, with the passing weak shortwave allowing for enough drying to break up this cloud deck for locations east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. A long freeze is ongoing across most of southeast GA to the north of this cloud deck, where temperatures at 08Z were generally in the 25-30 degree range, except mid 30s at coastal locations, where a chilly northerly breeze was driving wind chill values down into the 20s. Temperatures elsewhere across northeast and north central FL ranged from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints ranged from around 20 within the Arctic air mass for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA to the mid 40s along portions of the northeast FL coast. Northwesterly flow aloft today will transition to a more zonal flow pattern tonight as troughing along the U.S. eastern seaboard shifts offshore. The stratocumulus cloud deck over the Suwannee Valley prompted us to discontinue the Freeze Warning across the northeast and north central FL counties overnight, but breaks in this stratocumulus cloudiness will likely result in widespread frost formation for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. A long duration freeze will otherwise continue across southeast GA into the early morning hours, where fair skies and calm winds will allow a hard freeze to continue for locations north of Waycross. Coastal troughing will tend to sharpen over the east central and northeast FL Atlantic waters today as high pressure over the Deep South continues to gradually weaken and shifts offshore of the southeastern seaboard by tonight. The weather pattern will likely result in stratocumulus expanding again from east to west across northeast and north central FL this morning, although this is not a high confidence forecast. We have opted to forecast more low level cloud cover than indicated by most of the guidance and also have lowered high temperatures below guidance across northeast and north central FL due to the low sun angle and the likelihood of low level moisture remaining trapped beneath a stubborn subsidence inversion. The coastal trough will also keep a fairly tight local pressure gradient in place along the northeast FL coast, keeping breezy northerly winds in place through around sunset. Fair skies will otherwise continue closer to the surface ridge axis over southeast GA today. Highs will range from the mid 50s along the southeast GA coast to the mid 60s across north central FL today, but could vary more than that depending on how to expected low level cloud deck evolves. Zonal flow aloft tonight will signal a return to warm air advection as coastal troughing over our local Atlantic waters begins to lift northward as a quasi-warm front. Trapped low level moisture will likely result in low stratus development, with fog possible across the area, especially for north central FL towards sunrise on Wednesday. The lifting coastal trough / pseudo warm front should develop showers over the northeast FL waters, with a few sprinkles potentially brushing the northeast FL beaches overnight. Fair skies and a lingering dry air mass may allow for another frosty night for inland southeast GA, but temperatures will likely remain above freezing. Lows will fall to the 40s elsewhere, except 50-55 for coastal locations, where a light north to northwesterly breeze is expected to prevail overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the area continues to move offshore Wednesday as a trough digs south from the central US towards the southeast, dragging a cold front towards the area by Thursday. Dry conditions prevail over inland locations on Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore through the day as light easterly winds develop. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s across SE GA, lower to mid 70s over NE FL. Isolated to Scattered chances of showers over the outer waters during the day will steadily push towards the near shore waters then the coastal locations through the overnight hours. Overnight Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across SE GA, in the 50s across NE FL. By Thursday, chances of scattered showers spread across inland locations ahead of an approaching cold front by the afternoon hours. Daytime highs in the 70s area-wide, warmer temps along north central FL. Chances of precipitation continue to tick upward along interior SE GA as the front begins to cross SE GA during the overnight hours into Friday morning. Overnight Lows in 50s across SE GA, upper 50s to lower 60s with the warmer temperatures along the coast and north central FL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Friday, the cold front will cross in the area, pushing through by the Friday evening. Dry and cooler weather will be present heading into the weekend as northeasterly winds develop behind the front with high pressure building into the area on Saturday. Temperatures will again trend down to the 30s across SE GA and the 40s across NE FL on Friday night, maybe allowing for some patchy Frost to develop along interior SE GA as winds will begin to decrease to near calm. But the cool down is temporary as the High pressure that built in behind the front, will move towards the Atlantic by Sunday. Temperatures will begin to warm above seasonal norms on Sunday as southwesterly-southerly winds develop, bringing warmer air in from the Gulf. The warm temperatures continue into the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Arctic high pressure settling over the southeastern states this morning will shift eastward and offshore tonight. Meanwhile, coastal troughing situated over the northeast and east central Florida waters will lift northward tonight, generating a few showers, mainly offshore. Seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels for the northeast Florida waters through late this morning. Winds will shift to south and then southwest on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a weakening frontal boundary that will approach our local waters, accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. This frontal boundary will cross our area on Friday, shifting winds to northwest during the afternoon hours. High pressure building north of our region on Friday afternoon and evening will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in winds shifting to northeast by Friday night and then east on Saturday afternoon as another coastal trough takes shape over the northeast Florida waters during the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: Southeast GA High on Tuesday, Low on Wednesday Northeast FL High on Tuesday, Moderate on Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure over the area will bring light northeast winds across southeast Georgia and locations along the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida Today, leading to low daytime dispersions for these locations. Slightly stronger winds over north central Florida will allow for Fair to Good dispersions to develop this Afternoon. By Wednesday, similar patterns in winds will again bring low dispersions across southeast Georgia, northern Suwannee Valley, and coastal locations across the area. Min RHs will steadily increase into midweek, before decreasing once again by the end of the week behind a cold front on Thursday evening. The next chances of precipitation will be on Thursday ahead of the cold front, higher chances along interior southeast Georgia. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog formation will be possible for inland portions of northeast and north central Florida during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday. Patchy to areas of frost formation will be possible across inland portions of southeast Georgia on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 57 35 65 48 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 54 50 65 54 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 60 42 70 54 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 61 54 71 59 / 0 10 10 20 GNV 64 46 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 66 47 74 56 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ024. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ472- 474. && $$