485 FXUS61 KALY 221843 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 143 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased enough for moderate snowfall amounts across portions of the SW Adirondacks, southeast Catskills and higher elevations in southern VT for Winter Weather Advisory issuances. Temperatures for Friday-Friday night have continued to trend colder, with P-type now favoring snow and/or a wintry mix during this time period. Temperatures are also trending colder for Saturday night into Sunday, also allowing for a greater chance for at least some snow and/or a wintry mix to occur during this time period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Moderate to high confidence in light to moderate snowfall for Tuesday-Tuesday night, with winter weather advisories issued across portions of the SW Adirondacks, southeast Catskills, and higher terrain in southern VT. 2. After a relatively quiet stretch for Christmas Eve/Day, there is increasing confidence for a period of snow and/or a wintry mix for Friday-Friday night across the region due to colder temperatures and a more southern storm track. 3. Temperatures trends are also colder for Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for another period of snow/wintry mix across the region before changing to rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Fast moving system currently tracking across southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will approach from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night. A surge of mid level isentropic lift and upper level left exit region dynamics will bring snow to the region on Tuesday. The snow should develop across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and western Mohawk Valley prior to daybreak, then should expand north/east across the Capital Region, SW Adirondacks and eventually into western MA and southern VT between roughly 6 and 9 AM. Most of the snowfall rates should be 0.25-0.50 inch/hour or less, although a few periods of slightly greater rates (0.50-0.75"/hour) could occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Periods of snow will gradually taper off from SW to NE during the afternoon for areas south of I-90, and during the mid to late afternoon to the north. After the snow tapers off, there could be patchy freezing drizzle or plain drizzle across portions of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Lake George region as well as higher terrain of the eastern Catskills as ice nuclei decreases within the impinging mid level dry slot. Total snowfall amounts through 7 PM Tuesday should generally be 1-3 inches, with the greatest amounts expected across higher terrain areas of the eastern Catskills, SW Adirondacks, and southern VT where some amounts of 4-5" will be possible. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas where greater amounts and resulting impacts are more likely. Will have to also watch areas of NW CT and western MA and the mid Hudson Valley, as some banding potential could result in amounts of up to 3 inches. Have blended colder HRRR/NAM temps for Tuesday high temps, which should remain at or slightly below freezing for most areas north of I-90 including the Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley region. Snow showers will linger across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, with an additional inch or two possible in some areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... Gusty winds will develop in the wake of the storm system for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with some gusts of 30-40 mph possible. Otherwise, generally quiet weather for Wednesday into Thursday before another storm system approaches from the west. Models have been trending stronger with confluent mid/upper level flow and surface high pressure building southward into the region Thursday with reinforcing shallow cold air. As the next storm system approaches, the cold air should support snow and/or a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) across the region. However, there remains uncertainty in the ultimate storm track and where any heavier precipitation occurs. Will have to watch this period closely, as a swath of moderate to locally heavy precipitation can not be ruled out, much of which could be snow and/or a wintry mix. High temps have trended much colder for Fri, with highs mainly in the 20s expected, although there remains a possibility for even colder max temps, especially for areas north of I-90. KEY MESSAGE 3... Yet another storm system approaches from the west for Saturday night into Sunday, with colder trends noted on models. This should allow for precipitation to begin as snow or a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) before changing to plain rain. This could result in additional significant snow amounts along with a wintry mix for at least portions of the region, favoring areas north of I-90 during this time period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions continue through 23/06z for all TAF sites. Light and variable winds continue through the TAF period. Beginning between 09z and 12z from west to east, light snow begins to move into all airfields continuing through the end of the TAF period. Periods of moderate snowfall has been introduced in PROB30 groups with light snowfall in the prevailing. Visibilities can fluctuate tomorrow between 1/2 mile in moderate snow to 3 miles in light snow. Ceilings are forecasted to lower to LIFR/IFR conditions between 23/12z and 23/18z. However, MVFR ceilings could occur with the light snowfall. As the 12z timeframe gets closer, forecast confidence could increase in the exact timing for moderate snowfall and LIFR/IFR ceilings conditions to occur. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN...RA...SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Christmas Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN...FZRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-033-038-039-082. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ063. MA...None. VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...05