190 FXUS61 KALY 291939 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 239 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Wind Advisories are in effect for much of eastern New York and western New England through Tuesday. Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect for portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley into Wednesday or Wednesday night as a lake effect snow event gets underway starting tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected behind a strong cold front tonight through Tuesday. Impacts from the strong winds include downed trees and isolated to scattered power outages. 2. Lake effect snow develops off Lake Ontario tonight and continues into Wednesday with the greatest accumulations across portions of the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strengthening low pressure system tracking into Atlantic Canada will send a cold front across the region through this afternoon. In the wake of this front, a strong pressure gradient in place will lead to windy conditions, which have already been observed across western New York thus far today. Widespread wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected tonight through Tuesday with the strongest winds within the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, eastern Catskills and Berkshires. As a result, a wind advisory is in effect for most of eastern New York and western New England. While winds may only gust to around 40 mph across portions of the Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley, any lingering ice accretion on trees will be more prone to snapping and breaking, so the wind advisory was also included for these areas. Latest probabilities for wind gusts to reach 58 mph or greater were less than 30 percent and rather localized to the higher terrain, so we held off on an upgrade to a High Wind Warning at this time for Berkshire County. Trends will be monitored in the event an upgrade is needed later. Winds will begin to subside Tuesday night as the gradient weakens ahead of an approaching clipper system. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold, west to northwesterly flow off the Great Lakes will result in a multi-day lake effect snow event beginning tonight. The lake effect snow band will begin across northern Herkimer County later this evening and then drop southward into the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys by early Tuesday morning. Latest CAMs suggest this band will set up just south of the NY Thruway Tuesday morning before lifting northward over the Thruway Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night then north of the Thruway on Wednesday. Within this band, near whiteout conditions are expected at times (combined with the strong winds from Key Message 1 above) with snowfall rates reaching 0.50 to 1 inches per hour. A multi- lake connection with Georgian Bay will allow for this band to extend well inland, reaching portions of the Capital District, mid- Hudson Valley and Berkshires at times where some coatings to a couple of inches can accumulate. Outside of this lake effect, upslope snow showers will bring 2 to 5 inches of accumulation to portions of the southern Green Mountains into midweek. Where the most persistent snow bands set up, snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected, mainly across Herkimer County, where a Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect. 3 to 7 inches of accumulation across Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery and Schoharie counties has resulted in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory. The flow will back more west-southwesterly on Wednesday as a weak clipper system passes through bringing some widespread light snow showers through Wednesday night. This will allow for the lake effect band to orient back across N Herkimer and Hamilton counties where the warnings and advisories extend through Wednesday night. In the wake of this clipper, westerly flow resumes through the rest of the week with additional accumulating lake effect snow. With winds expected to not be as strong as earlier in the week, any bands during the late week will likely not extend as far inland, only bringing some light accumulations to ares west of the Hudson Valley. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z/Tuesday, widespread rain has exited to our east but a cold front marching eastward this afternoon will usher in additional scattered showers before winds turn breezy this evening. Given the spotty nature of showers, did not include showers in the latest TAF updates at GFL, ALB and POU but included a PROB30 group at PSF where colder temperatures can support brief snow showers. Otherwise, IFR cigs at GFL and PSF improve back to VFR by 21 UTC or so. VFR cigs continue tonight outside of any snow showers that extend into ALB and PSF mainly 06 - 10 UTC where IFR/MVFR vis and MVFR cigs can occur. Southerly to southwesterly winds this afternoon shift to the west by 21 - 00 UTC becoming sustained 10-18 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT overnight. However, a low-level inversion looks to prevent gusts from becoming too strong at ALB, GFL and POU until 12 - 15 UTC when the strongest cold air advection kicks in. Expecting gusts to reach 30 to 45kts, strongest at PSF. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. New Years Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>041-047>054- 058>061-063>066-082. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ033-042-043-083- 084. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039-040-047-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...31