346 FXUS61 KALY 081754 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1254 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added patchy freezing drizzle in the near-term (through 9 AM this morning) across the SW Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and upslope areas of southern VT/western MA. Also increased coverage/amounts for freezing rain Saturday afternoon and night across higher terrain of southern Adirondacks/southern VT. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy freezing drizzle across SW Adirondacks/upslope areas of southern VT this morning, with areas of black ice elsewhere. - Some snowmelt due to warming temperatures and rain will allow for increased runoff for Friday through the weekend. River rises are expected, however overall threat for widespread ice jam and/or river flooding appears low at this time. - Wintry mix possible across higher terrain areas of southern Adirondacks/southern VT Saturday afternoon/night with some icing leading to hazardous travel conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Moisture trapped beneath strong low level inversion leading to widespread low clouds across the region, with spotty freezing drizzle across portions of the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Additional freezing drizzle may develop closer to daybreak across upslope areas of southern VT/NW MA. Also, areas which experienced precipitation and/or snowmelt on Wednesday have dropped to around the freezing mark, leading to some black ice formation. Will keep addressing both hazards through mid morning via Special Weather Statements. KEY MESSAGE 2... Although temperatures will trend milder for Friday, with highs reaching the 40s in many areas, snowmelt will remain limited to mainly valley areas as overall snowpack remains quite cold for most areas north of I-90. The milder temperatures will also be brief in duration, as a cold front will settle back southward Friday night, producing chilly temperatures for most areas Saturday and Saturday night. Some showers will occur Friday ahead of incoming cold front. Amounts should be relatively light, generally 0.25-0.50" for areas north and west of Albany, and under 0.25" elsewhere. The next surge of precipitation will be greater, generally widespread 0.25-0.50" Saturday afternoon and night. Some of this precipitation looks to be in the form of a wintry mix across the southern Adirondacks and higher elevations in southern VT. Overall, although some river rises are expected due to the combination of rainfall and some snowmelt, river flooding is not expected at this time. In addition, the expected rises on area rivers/streams and creeks looks to be too low to allow for significant ice breakup/movement and ice jam flooding potential. However, will need to watch trends as greater rainfall amounts and/or warmer temperatures would increase potential ice movement. KEY MESSAGE 3... Shallow low level cold air looks to settle southward into the southern Adirondacks and portions of southern VT behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. As the next surge of precipitation overspreads the region from south to north Saturday afternoon, forecast thermal profiles suggest a warm nose aloft despite lingering low level cold air across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. This set up may allow for precipitation to start as a wintry mix (mainly sleet/freezing rain) before eventually changing to plain rain later Saturday night or Sunday morning. This would lead to areas of hazardous travel conditions, with greatest chances currently favoring higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks and in southern VT. Current forecast now includes some ice amounts (flat ice accretion) of 0.25-0.33" in these areas. Again, will have to watch trends as amounts on the higher end of this range, or even higher, would lead to some downed tree limbs and power outages in addition to the aforementioned travel impacts. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Fri...MVFR stratus continues at KPSF with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL, otherwise some low VFR cigs linger at KALB/KGFL in the 3.5-4 kft AGL range, as high pressure ridges in from the south early this pm. Expect the MVFR cigs to erode this afternoon with sct-bkn high cloudiness lingering into tonight. KPOU will continue to be VFR with just a few-sct stratocumulus with some high clouds prior to 00Z/Fri. The mostly clear to partly cloudy skies due to high clouds coupled with light to calm winds will allow for some radiational mist/freezing fog to form especially at KGFL/KPSF. Some IFR/MVFR stratus may form at KPSF too. We did include some MVFR mist with TEMPO groups at KALB/KPOU in the 04Z-08Z/Fri time frame. Our confidence was greater to put IFR and periodic LIFR conditions in for KPSF/KGFL after 05Z/Fri. Expect the mid and high clouds to increase by 12Z/Fri, as the sfc high passes south and east off the coast with a return to VFR/high MVFR conditions for the TAF sites for the duration of the morning. The winds will be light to calm at KGFL/KPOU and west to northwest at 10 KT or less at KALB/KPSF prior to 00Z/Fri. The winds will be light to calm overnight and then increase from the southeast to south at less 10 KT after daybreak, except KALB will increase from the south/southeast at 10-15 KT with some gusts 25 KT by noontime. Low-level wind shear /LLWS/ will become an issue at all the TAF sites between 12Z-17Z/FRI as the sfc winds are less than 10 KT with the 2 kft AGL winds increasing to 35-40 KT. LLWS has been included in the TAFs in the late morning onward. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA...SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. Slight Chance of SN. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05/24 AVIATION...15