612 FXUS61 KALY 141130 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 630 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow will taper off from west to east this morning as low pressure tracks away from the coast. An Arctic cold front will move south across the region today, resulting in cold and blustery conditions tonight into Monday. Another disturbance will bring snow showers Monday afternoon into Monday night, with some lake effect snow in parts of the western Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Well below normal temperatures will continue through early this week. - A disturbance bringing light snow mainly from the Capital District south, will taper off this morning. Discussion: As of 158 AM, radar, obs and webcams showing light snow falling from around I-90 and the Capital District south, with the steadiest snow south of Albany. Main change with this update was to lower snowfall slightly along the Mohawk Valley and Capital District corridor due to very light snowfall rates. Still looking at generally 1-3" snowfall south of Albany, with the greatest amounts of 2-3" in the upslope areas of the Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. This will cause some slippery travel into this morning, although Sunday morning timing will limit impacts due to less traffic. High-res guidance in good agreement showing the light snow tapering off from west to east between 7 AM and Noon, with SW New England the last to see the snow end. An Arctic cold front will push south later this morning into the afternoon, as a positively tilted upper trough moves in from the north/west. Will mention isolated to scattered snow showers with the front, with greater coverage across western parts of the area with some added lake moisture. Any activity will be light/minor with a dusting to half inch in some spots. Temperatures will only reach the 10s to upper 20s through mid afternoon then begin to drop with NW winds increasing. The core of the coldest air aloft (850 mb temperatures -16C to -20C) moves in tonight, resulting frigid temperatures with lows ranging from slightly below zero to around 10F. NBM temperatures look reasonable in this cold advection regime and are actually colder than other guidance(MAV/MET). There will still be a decent pressure gradient in place all night, so a persistent breeze of at least 5-15 mph will result in min wind chill/feels- like temperatures of -15F to -5F in higher terrain areas and -5F to +5F in lower elevations. Some mountain spots could reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but coverage not widespread enough to issue any headlines. Any lake effect snow looks confined to central NY with the NW flow. After a cold/dry start to the day, a disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring mainly isolated to scattered snow showers Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Snow showers will be more numerous across the W. Adirondacks due to lake effect/upslope enhancement. Most areas expected to receive just a dusting to half inch. Highs will be cold, ranging from upper 10s mountains to mid/upper 20s valleys. As the disturbance passes through, westerly flow will become well-aligned resulting a brief period of lake effect snow from around Old Forge north late Mon into Mon evening, which could bring 2-4" of snow to N. Herkimer County. The lake effect should weaken overnight as surface ridging builds in from the west. Lows will be cold 5F-15F, but winds will lighter than the previous night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Cold temperatures persist through Tuesday, with a warmup expected mid to late week. - A storm system brings widespread precipitation, mainly rain, along with gusty winds late Thursday into Friday. Discussion: Tue into Tue night looks dry with zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging moving east across the mid Atlantic region. Temperatures still look to remain below normal with highs mainly in the 20s and lows in the 10s. Temperatures moderate Wed with a strengthening westerly flow developing ahead of a progressive short-wave aloft and surface cold front. Highs expected to reach normal levels for the first time in a while. The cold front could bring some rain/snow showers north/west of Albany Wed P.M. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft move in Wed night, with the high shifting east of the area on Thu. A strengthening storm system moving through the Midwest will induce increasing southerly flow resulting in a warmup. Most areas expected to rise above freezing and even into the 40s in lower elevations. As a strong cyclone tracks from the upper Great Lakes into SE Canada, the system's cold front and strong short wave aloft will march east across our area in the late Thu night into Fri morning time frame. Guidance in fairly good agreement on timing this far out. This system looks to bring a period of brief moderate/heavy precip (mainly rain), and potentially strong winds with a southerly jet Thu night shifting to the west on Fri. NBM probs already showing a 40-70% chance for > 40 mph wind gusts across a large part of the area in the 24-hr period ending Fri evening. Will continue to monitor trends. With only a short (12-18 hr) period of warming, significant snow melt and/or river ice melting is not anticipated at this time. While mainly rain is expected, depending on how quickly the cold front moves through, rain could change to snow in some higher terrain areas. Surface ridging looks to build back in Fri night into Sat, with dry and less windy conditions returning. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z/Mon...Wave of low pressure will continue to bring periods of snow until around 14z/Sun at KPOU/KPSF with IFR/MVFR conditions before tapering off. Any snow showers/flurries have tapered off at KALB/KGFL. Cigs through this morning will be in the MVFR/VFR range though some brief IFR cigs could occur at KPOU before the snow ends. This system will depart the TAF sites later this morning with cigs lifting back to VFR though remaining MVFR at KPSF due to upslope flow. A few additional snow showers may develop between 18z/Sun and 00z/Mon upon the passage of an upper level shortwave so maintained PROB30 groups with this update. Clouds begin to decrease in coverage after 00z/Mon but remain MVFR for a while at KPSF due to upslope flow. Wind will become north to northwesterly this morning and remain in these directions through the TAF period. Sustained winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...33