859 FXUS63 KFSD 111144 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 544 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flurries to light snow this morning will transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet mainly west of a De Smet-Sioux Falls-Cherokee, IA line. Ice accumulations will range from a glaze to a 0.15" of an inch with the highest accumulations west of the James River Valley. - Mainly light snow will occur east of the previously mentioned line with 1-3 inches of fresh snow expected. The highest accumulations will likely occur across southwestern MN. - The combination of slippery road conditions and accumulating snowfall will lead to minor travel impacts especially during the morning commute. - Confidence continues to increase in accumulation snowfall on Saturday especially along the Missouri River Valley. Overall amounts continue to trend towards the 1-3 inch range. - An influx of arctic air over the weekend will lead to cold temperatures and even colder winds chills especially by Sunday morning. Wind chill values as low as -30 degrees will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 TODAY & TONIGHT: A wintry day ahead! Taking a look across the area, we're continuing to see areas of flurries to light snow streaming into areas west of the James River Valley this morning. The forecast remains on track for areas of light snow to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as 800:900 mb temperatures warm with the approaching surface warm front. While the defining line between snow and wintry mix likely sits west of a De Smet to Sioux Falls to Cherokee, IA line; we'll continue to see precipitation coverage expand to the southeast over the course of the morning with the mid-level wave. With accumulative ice amounts expected to range from between a glaze to 0.15" of an inch with the highest amounts west of the James River Valley, slippery road conditions are expected in the areas of highest accumulation. With this in mind, minor travel impacts are expected during the morning commute so make sure to slow down and drive to the conditions! Shifting gears here, mainly light snow will continue east of the previously mentioned line with the potential for sleet mixing in nearest the line itself. Looking aloft, snowfall rates could see a slight uptick by late morning mainly across southwestern MN as increasing dPVA and mid-level frontogenesis lead to a narrow corridor of enhanced snowfall. Within this area, snowfall rates between 0.25" to 0.50" in/hr will be possible at times according to the HREF. With this in mind, where the highest rates develop will likely carry our highest accumulations for this event. Nonetheless, snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches are expected with the highest accumulations in southwestern MN. With all this in mind, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 am through 6 pm for most areas besides along the Missouri River Valley. Lastly, with the progressive nature of this system; conditions should begin to clear from northwest to southeast over the course of the evening. THE WEEKEND: Heading into the weekend, mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of the day on Friday. However, this will be short- lived as another mid-level clipper swings through the area from Friday night into Saturday bringing renewed chances for snow. Looking at deterministic guidance, most guidance continues to point to 1-3 inch amounts so far with the focus being across the Missouri River Valley. With that being said, uncertainty with the track could still shift the highest amounts northwards or southwards over the next couple of days so continue to monitor you local forecast as the details could change! Otherwise, the other concern continues to be on the colder temperatures and even colder wind chills. As an influx of arctic air and a fresh snowpack helps temperatures plummet into the single digits to teens over the weekend, we'll likely see sub- zero wind chills return to the area each night through Sunday. Sunday morning continues to look like the peak of the coldest conditions with values between 20 to 30 below zero expected. We'll likely need a cold weather headline these or colder values occur. NEXT WEEK: Looking into the new week, quieter conditions likely return from Monday onwards as an upper-level ridge resets our overall pattern to quasi-zonal flow. While there will be a few waves that push through between Monday and Wednesday, highs will likely hover near to just above freezing. With this in mind, this will be a welcomed change from the wave train moving forward. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will transition to MVFR and lower this TAF period mainly due to increasing snow chances. Taking a look at satellite imagery, VFR stratus continues to sit over the area this morning ahead of an approaching wave. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys are expected by mid morning as light snow and wintry mix develops across the area. IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys will then develop by early afternoon especially at KFSD and KHON. Nonetheless, things should taper off by this evening as MVFR to IFR cigs return for the rest of the TAF period. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will become more northerly by this evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ039- 040-054>056-060>062-065>067. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ038-052-053-057>059. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05