930 FXUS61 KGYX 111142 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 642 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts northeast of the area this morning dragging a cold front across the area. Westerly winds will become gusty behind the front and will persist through Friday. High pressure briefly builds in Friday night into Saturday. A weak disturbance will bring chances for snow showers Saturday night followed by low pressure passing south of New England Sunday. Another cold airmass builds in Monday before temperatures moderate through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 640 AM Update...Cold front pushing offshore now with winds steadily increasing it its wake. Variably cloudy skies are expected today along with mountain snow showers. However, the winds will be the main theme, with occasional westerly gusts of 25-40 MPH that could allow for some power outages. Previously... Vorticity max is crossing the forecast area at this time...and that is allowing precip to taper off from west to east as it does so. There has already been a significant weakening in the intensity of precip...and ceilings and visibility both are lifting across the area. That trend will continue over the next couple of hours until we are largely dry outside of upslope snow showers. However temps continue to hover around freezing...and icy roads will remain possible. Upper trof axis crosses the region around midday and that is when the real cold advection begins. Mixing depths increase and winds will become gusty. Forecast soundings continue to indicate the top of the boundary tapping 40 to 45 kt westerly winds. Gusts of 30 to 35 kt seem totally reasonable given that forecast...but the NBM guidance was on the lighter side. I blended in some HRRR and 90th percentile wind/gust guidance to bump the forecast in that direction. With the well mixed environment and upslope snow showers ongoing...I also added some flurries downwind of the higher terrain. I do not think this is the type of set up for snow showers to remain stuck on the windward side of the mtns. So while accumulation is not likely...there should be some flakes in the air into the foothills. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Cold advection continues and along with it gusty winds linger thru the overnight. NBM forecast looks fine on that front...as even in well mixed environments the winds tend to not gust quite as high overnight. Even still wind chills should fall below zero for most locations. Fri will see the mixing and subsequent gusts to pick back up again. It is possible we see another round of 30+ kt gusts during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday allowing gusty winds to subside and bringing mostly fair weather. A sheared out short wave will pass near northern New England Saturday night followed by a positively tilted trough sliding southeast towards the Mid Atlantic Sunday. This will bring chances for snow showers Saturday night and perhaps some light snow Sunday. Another cold shot follows for Monday before temperatures moderate into mid week as the western ridge breaks down and the pattern turns zonal from the eastern Pacific across the northern CONUS. West winds gradually subside Friday night as the gradient relaxes with high pressure building in from the southwest. High pressure shifts southeast Saturday while providing mostly dry conditions with some increasing clouds. Highs on Saturday will range from the 20s north to the 30s near the coast. A weakening short wave will spread some forcing for ascent over the area Saturday night that may result in scattered snow showers with little to no accumulation. A more robust trough will swing southeast out of the Great Lakes Sunday. The multi model consensus is for the best forcing to be suppressed south of the area with an area of low pressure passing southeast of Cape Cod. While the bulk of the moisture with the low passes south, there will modest forcing for ascent bringing chances for light snow Sunday. Another shot of cold air arrives Monday that will keep highs in the teens and 20s. Global models and ensembles suggest the western ridge will break down next week as the Pacific jet strengthens into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring milder Pacific air across the CONUS that will lead to temperatures moderating towards the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Conditions continue to slowly improve across the forecast area very early this morning. Only pockets of IFR or lower remain and this will clear out as well once winds shift to a more westerly direction. VFR conditions are expected for most of the area...but upslope flow will keep an MVFR CIG around HIE and maybe as far south as LEB. More widespread will be the gusty west northwest winds in the afternoon and evening. Surface gusts of 30 to 35 kt are possible at all terminals except HIE...but even there should be in excess of 25 kt. Gusty winds continue into Fri. Long Term...Mainly VFR Friday night through Saturday night. Some light snow is possible Sunday, especially closer to the coast that will bring potential for restrictions. A return to VFR is likely Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southwesterly low level jet is starting to move east of the waters now allowing winds and seas to temporarily diminish. SCA conditions are expected thru the rest of the early morning hours however. Then cold advection kicks in and winds increase from the west northwest. Gales are expected for all waters and may be strong outside of the bays. Those strong wind gusts will continue into Fri morning before diminishing slightly...but SCA conditions are forecast thru the rest of the day. Long Term...Winds and seas subiside Friday night with sub SCA conditions likely by Saturday morning lasting into Sunday. Northerly winds will strengthen late Sunday as low pressure passes south of the Gulf of Maine. These winds will bring the potential for Gales Sunday night into Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ151-153. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster/Legro SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Schroeter AVIATION... MARINE...