022 FXUS63 KFSD 110424 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1024 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter weather advisory for a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow continues through Thursday. Highest snow accumulations over Minnesota and some northwest Iowa counties. Freezing rain accumulations up to 0.10" along and west of the James River valley. - A band of snow will be possible on Saturday. For now the better chances appear to be near and south of I-90. Overall looking like 1- 3 inch amounts. - Confidence continues to increase in arctic air bringing near advisory level wind chills to the region by this weekend. - Depending upon how much snow falls through Saturday, a milder pattern sets up for early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Quick look of the 00Z model guidance supports a slightly slower arrival of warm air on Thursday. The HRRR seems to be lifting the wave and warm advection too far northeast. This may place the transition zone a bit more along a line from Huron to Sioux City. Additionally, the intensity of the WAA is not quite as strong, suggesting a narrow corridor of a bit more sleet and potentially forcing more of the freezing rain risks along and west of the James River Valley. The resultant modifications in the p-type probability forecast suggests a bit more snow/sleet in areas from Madison to Sioux Falls to Cherokee with accumulation of 0.5 to 1.5". Snow amounts may trend upwards in areas of SW MN and NW IA as well, with potential for 3" in some areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A fairly strong wave will drop southeast through strong northwest flow aloft late tonight into Thursday. Given thermal profiles across the area concerns continue for a combination of freezing rain and snow, especially near and west of I-29 and near and north of I-90. Across southwest MN the majority of the precipitation would be snow and for now those amounts would likely be 1-3". Also of concern with this will be the precipitation increasing through the morning and possibly beginning near the morning rush, although locations closer to I-29 should see a start time closer to 8-10 am. Currently it looks like precipitation will start as mainly snow, then transition to freezing rain after a period. The impacts from any freezing rain will be dependent upon how much snow falls first. For now snow amounts before the freezing rain look to be fairly minimal so believe that there will be some minor to moderate impacts from the freezing rain, especially with the now bare roads and no snow or slush to absorb some of this liquid precipitation as it is freezing. So went ahead and expanded the advisory south to I-90 and east just into MN and far northwest IA. Areas east of this advisory will see more snow than freezing rain and amounts for now do not warrant an advisory. Will also need to monitor potential for a light icing south of I-90 Thursday morning into the afternoon but for now confidence not high enough in this area for an advisory. By late afternoon this lift will shift southeast and colder air will filter southward. This should shut down precipitation from northwest to southeast. Model soundings do indicate some saturation in the lowest few thousand feet so will need to monitor for the potential of a little light freezing drizzle as this system exits. Otherwise a jet digs into northern MN and drags further cold air into the region on Friday. This will bring a cold Friday to the region with highs in the teens and wind chills dropping below zero in many locations Friday afternoon. The next chance for snow will come Friday night into Saturday. While the wave is much weaker, thermally we are primed for snow production. The DGZ basically runs from near the surface to about 600 mb. With somewhat weaker winds in the lower 2000 feet or so this could prove to be a fairly efficient snow maker. Cold air funnel in behind this system and Saturday night into Sunday looks very cold. Could potentially see cold weather advisories across the area during this time. Sunday night into the middle of next week will see a pattern chance with ridging building, then flat westerly flow expected, supporting milder flow aloft and at the surface. Will have to keep an eye out for a system Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions have moved into most areas of the Tri-State area late this evening. However, these conditions won't last long as initial wave of warm advection light snow is trying to develop over central South Dakota. Through daybreak flurries may redevelop and move eastward, as ceilings gradually lower. More intense forcing and rapidly worsening conditions develop after daybreak in central South Dakota, spreading east towards I-90 by mid-morning and eastward through the mid-day hours. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely, and in moderate snow, visibility may drop below 1/2 mile at times. A narrow corridor of sleet may also develop along a Huron to Sioux Falls line at times, and have indicated the greatest potential for this weather type around mid-day. Low ceilings and weak lift persist into the evening, with some potential for freezing drizzle to develop into the evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>067. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Thursday for SDZ038-052-053-057>059. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dux DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Dux