917 FXUS64 KLIX 302324 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 524 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Rain slowly dissipates this afternoon. - The frontal boundary stalls in the northern Gulf, then a developing surface low on this front moves northeast bringing more widespread precipitation to the area Monday afternoon & night. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts. - This system departs early Tuesday, with much colder air filtering into the region. Another freeze is possible for areas along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Performed a gridded forecast package update this evening to bring in recent short-range guidance matched with observational trends. Everything is looking good, with what we expected as the band of light rain has dissipated over the area. Still seeing some light returns from New Orleans to Gulfport, so can't rule out some patchy drizzle in this region for the next couple of hours before completely drying out later tonight. Did adjust temperatures to follow observational trends which resulted in lowering the diurnal curvature and (slightly) lowering MinT's tomorrow morning to keep us on the cooler/colder side of guidance, supported by building CAA following the front sagging south into coastal areas. So overall, quiet tonight. Still looking like a good soaker later tomorrow for the whole area. Looked closely at hourly PoPs going into 6PM tomorrow which, timing looks great compared to the suite of HREF members. Only extra additional note was the potential for light rain or drizzle ahead of this activity Monday morning, with 10-20% PoPs for some areas. This is just in response to the increasing WAA and developing surface low to the southwest. Likely going to crank up PoPs tomorrow afternoon closing in on 100% and will take a closer look at any deformation banding potential of higher QPF with the updated suite of 00Z CAM guidance later this evening with the main package coming up. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 A southern stream shortwave is shifting to the east of the area this morning. A northern stream trough was dropping southward through Nevada and Utah this morning, putting the northern Gulf Coast in zonal mid-level flow. At the surface, low pressure was moving across the area. An area of light rain was noted over the the area from McComb to Morgan City, but has been showing a diminishing/dissipating trend over the last couple hours. Quite the temperature range across Mississippi and Louisiana this morning, with temperatures in northern portions of both states in the lower 40s, while coastal Mississippi and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain were near 70. The frontal boundary will gradually slip offshore this afternoon and evening with the current area of rain gradually dissipating. The trough over the Intermountain West this morning will move into the southern Plains by Monday evening, with a southern stream shortwave moving along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of it. This will induce at least weak cyclogenesis over the northern Gulf along the baroclinic boundary at some point Monday. This will spread a new rain shield northeastward into the area by Monday afternoon. Even with extensive cloud cover, there is likely to be about a 10- 15F temperature range in low temperatures tonight. Highs on Monday likely to range from the mid 50s far northwest to the mid 60s over coastal Louisiana and Mississippi. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 As the upper trough moves into the Ohio River Valley Monday night into Tuesday, it will force the southern stream shortwave across the area, reaching Alabama around midnight Monday night as low pressure moves into the Florida Panhandle. The main area of rain should exit our area around midnight Monday night. As the low continues to deepen and move northeastward toward New England by Tuesday night, it will pull cooler and drier air into the local area, at least temporarily. Would expect Tuesday and Wednesday to be dry across the area in between systems. The next upper trough will be dropping into the Four Corners region on Wednesday with a southern stream shortwave ejecting northeastward ahead of it from the Mexican Plateau. Moisture will return to the local area Wednesday night, with precipitation chances increasing by sunrise Thursday. Thursday into Friday night looks wet, to say the least, with multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms. The baroclinic zone looks to set up further northwest for the 2nd half of the week than what we will see over the next 36 hours. This will put some to most of the area in the warm sector for the 2nd half of the week. The main detail yet to be determined is where the bands of heaviest rain will set up. There is likely to be a band where 2 to 4 inches of rain occurs between 12z Thursday and 12z Saturday with the early indications perhaps targeting the northwest half of the area. Much of that is likely to be welcome, considering the sparse November precipitation amounts across the area. Temperatures will be rather chilly Monday night into at least Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will likely remain in the 50s, and there will most likely be patchy areas that fall to near or below freezing Wednesday morning to the north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors. Temperatures moderate beyond that point, with highs in the 60s and perhaps lower 70s for Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Recent KHDC radar trends illustrate most of the -SHRA has dissipated, with the exception of occasional drizzle from KMSY to KGPT but will dry out going into 03Z this evening. Some patchy FG has also developed across KMCB, and kept this mention going in TAFs through about 02Z. Will monitor for possible AMDs if this persists but guidance indicates probabilities of FG to dissipate going into early tonight. Main story will be persistently low CIGs across the region, bouncing between prevailing MVFR to periods of IFR/LIFR. Could see some slightly improvement after 03-12Z this evening but will monitor. Next round of more widespread SHRA builds into the region Monday morning, with low CIG's and reduced VIS caused by area SHRA being the main impacts resulting in reduced flight categories. Not anticipating much lightning near area terminals but can't rule it out completely. SHRA will likely persist off/on through Monday night. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 As the frontal boundary arrives over the Gulf this afternoon and tonight, north to northeast winds will increase. Will leave the current headlines in place, beginning at noon CST. May need a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over portions of the waters Monday afternoon. As colder air pours over the waters late Monday night or Tuesday, an additional Small Craft Advisory will eventually be needed across most or all of the waters. If there is going to be a period where conditions might be more favorable for marine operations, it would be Wednesday into the early portion of Thursday, before conditions deteriorate again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 40 57 37 50 / 10 70 100 10 BTR 45 61 39 53 / 20 80 90 10 ASD 44 65 43 56 / 10 40 90 20 MSY 52 67 47 58 / 10 50 90 10 GPT 49 66 47 59 / 20 50 90 20 PQL 45 68 46 60 / 20 40 90 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...KLG MARINE...RW