702 FXUS64 KMOB 271110 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 510 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 509 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft across portions of the marine area through Friday morning, with another possible period from Friday night into Saturday morning. - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday. - Low relative humidity values on Thursday and Friday along with the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire danger and will be monitored. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Dry conditions are expected through Saturday with cool temperatures through Friday followed by more seasonable values for Saturday. A large upper trof evolves over the central states Friday night into Saturday then ejects off across the interior eastern states through Sunday night. An associated surface low lifts from the central Plains to across the Great Lakes region and brings a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. There appears to be a modest uptick in shear Saturday night as a series of shortwaves progress across the area ahead of the frontal passage, but instability for the most part looks to remain limited. Shear values look low for Sunday and instability looks to remain limited, so am not anticipating strong storm development at this time. Will have mainly slight chance to good chance pops Saturday night with chance to likely pops for Sunday which taper off to slight chance pops Sunday night. Another large upper trof meanwhile swings into the western half of the CONUS then looks to progress across the eastern states Tuesday into Wednesday morning, though with a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing and evolution of this feature. A surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwestern Gulf on Monday. Depending on how the upper pattern plays out, the surface low could progress across the southern portion of the forecast area Monday night or pass across the marine area and eventually move across the Florida peninsula Tuesday morning. Will continue to monitor. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday with likely pops for Monday night. Rain chances decrease to mostly slight chance by Tuesday afternoon then dry conditions are expected for Wednesday. Highs on Thanksgiving range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to around 60 closer to the coast, then lows Thanksgiving night range from around 30 well inland to near 40 at the immediate coast. Similarly cool temperatures are expected for Friday and Friday night. Highs on Saturday range from near 60 well inland to the mid 60s near the coast, and lows Saturday night range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid/upper 50s at the coast. Highs on Sunday range from the lower/mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and lows Sunday night range from the upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday mostly range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast with similar values for Wednesday. Lows Monday night tend to range from around 40 well inland to around 50 at the coast, then Tuesday night will range from around 30 well inland to around 40 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday night with a moderate risk for Saturday. A high risk of rip currents follows for Saturday night and Sunday, then a moderate risk is expected for Sunday night into Monday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR flight category prevails today into tonight across the region. Winds will remain out of the north at around 10 knots, gusting upwards of 20 knots at times through this afternoon. Winds relax to 5 to 10 knots out of the north after sunset tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish somewhat on Thursday. The offshore flow strengthens Thursday night mainly over the open Gulf waters, diminishes on Friday, then a moderate to strong easterly flow develops Friday night. A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops on Saturday then switches to the north Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Mobile Bay and the MS Sound until 8 am Thursday, and for the near shore waters until 10 am Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory continues for the 20-60 nm portion through Friday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory also meanwhile in effect for the near shore waters from 9 pm Thursday until 9 am Friday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Friday night into Saturday morning will need to be monitored for a possible Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters. /29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% for much of the area on Thursday, and also on Friday mainly over south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. At this time, the Significant Fire Potential rating is low or less for both days. The 20 ft wind speeds will be less than 15/16 mph for the most part, but could reach these values over the coastal counties and will need to monitor. Will mention the potential for elevated fire danger due to low relative humidity and potentially breezy winds. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 60 36 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 41 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 41 58 43 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 60 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 57 31 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 55 30 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 60 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675. && $$