193 FXUS61 KCLE 212047 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to sweep generally eastward through our region through this early evening. Behind the cold front, a ridge affects our region through Sunday night as the embedded high pressure center moves from the Upper Midwest tonight to near the central Appalachians by daybreak Monday. This track of the high pressure center will allow a warm front to sweep generally northeastward through our region Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through tonight. The axis of a stronger and positively-tilted shortwave trough should move generally E'ward from the western Great Lakes, central Great Plains, and vicinity to near eastern NY state and the Lower OH Valley by daybreak Saturday. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes will maintain abundant cloud cover over our region. At the surface, a cold front had already swept E'ward through roughly the western 1/4 of our CWA as of 2:37 PM EST. This front will continue to sweep generally E'ward across the rest of our CWA through this early evening. In addition, a pre-front trough axis, associated with a separate and more subtle shortwave trough aloft, will continue to sweep generally E'ward across NW PA and vicinity through this mid-afternoon. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through daybreak Saturday. Net CAA at the surface and aloft, behind the cold front, will contribute to lows reaching the lower to upper 30's around daybreak Saturday. Isolated rain showers may be triggered by convergence/ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axis, but the antecedent atmospheric column is fairly dry at/near the surface. However, the greater potential for rain, primarily light in nature, exists late this afternoon through the first few wee hours of Saturday morning, in response to frontogenetical convergence/moist ascent aloft, ahead of the positively-tilted shortwave trough axis. The greatest potential for this more- widespread rain still exists roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30 in our CWA, where the residence time of precip should be greatest and thus precip should be able to reach the surface via the wet-bulb effect. Given the expected progression of the shortwave trough axis, all associated precip is expected to exit our CWA generally to the east by daybreak Saturday. Based on the latest forecast timing of precip, rain should end before the atmospheric column becomes cold enough for rain to mix with or change to wet snow. During Saturday through Saturday night, a shortwave ridge should advance from the Upper Midwest and vicinity toward New England as the axis of an amplifying shortwave trough moves from the northern Great Plains and vicinity toward Lake Huron and vicinity. At the surface, the ridge will continue to affect our region on Saturday as the embedded high pressure center moves from the western Great Lakes toward the northeast United States During Saturday night, a rather moisture-starved warm front will sweep NE'ward through our region and be accompanied by weak surface troughing. Peeks of sunshine and net low-level CAA will be accompanied by late afternoon highs in the lower 40's to near 50F on Saturday. Net low-level WAA is expected to become established across our region Saturday night. Overnight lows should reach mainly the lower to mid 30's shortly after midnight Sunday morning and be followed by a slight moderation in air temperatures by daybreak as low-level WAA strengthens somewhat. Dry weather is expected Saturday through Saturday night due, in part to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the surface ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Sunday through Monday, an amplifying ridge aloft should build from the southern and central Great Plains and eventually crest E'ward over our region as the above-mentioned shortwave trough axis moves from Lake Huron and vicinity around daybreak Sunday to the Canadian Maritimes and vicinity by nightfall Monday evening. At the surface, weak residual troughing behind the warm front will be replaced quickly by ridging as the parent high pressure center moves from near the Ozarks to near the Delmarva Peninsula. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, moist isentropic ascent ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough axis may trigger a few wet snow and/or rain showers in NW PA shortly after daybreak and through late morning on Sunday. No snow accumulation is expected. Continued net low-level WAA and intervals of sunshine should allow late afternoon highs to reach the 40's to lower 50's on Sunday and the upper 40's to mid 50's on Monday. In between, intervals of clear sky and weak or calm surface winds should contribute to lows reaching mainly the mid 20's to mid 30's around daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward Monday night and allow cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances to begin impacting our region. Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft should then persist through Wednesday night as embedded shortwave disturbances continue to impact northern OH, NW PA, and vicinity. The cyclonic flow aloft should shift to NW'erly on Thanksgiving, when the axis of a particularly-strong shortwave trough should move E'ward through our area. NW'erly cyclonic flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should then continue to impact our CWA Thanksgiving night through Friday, November 28th. At the surface, net troughing should impact our region Monday night through Friday. In addition, a cold front associated with a rather strong shortwave trough should sweep generally E'ward through our CWA Tuesday night through Wednesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Tuesday and be followed by daytime highs in the 50's as net low-level WAA continues in our region. Lows should reach mainly the upper 30's to lower 40's overnight Tuesday night and be followed by daytime highs in the mid 40's to lower 50's on Wednesday. The warmest highs on Wednesday should occur farther east in our CWA, prior to the cold front passage. Net CAA at the surface and aloft should occur in earnest behind the cold front. This CAA regime should contribute to lows reaching mainly the mid 20's to lower 30's around daybreak Thanksgiving morning and daytime highs reaching only the mid 30's to near 40F for the holiday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 20's Thursday night and be followed by daytime highs only in the mid 30's to near 40F on Friday. Periods of showers are expected Monday night through Friday the 28th due, in part to the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; convergence and moist ascent along surface trough axes and the cold front. Behind the cold front, a sufficiently-cold/moist mean low-level flow over and downwind of ~8C Lake Erie should become established and support lake-effect precip generation later Wednesday through Friday, which has been a signal in NWP model guidance for at least the past 72-hours. The direction of the mean low-level flow remains highly uncertain and will be tied closely to the evolution of the shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. For example, the latest runs of the GEM and ECMWF models, which are often quite accurate and reliable, indicate the mean low-level flow could vary between SW'erly and NW'erly. Something to monitor closely in the coming days. Given expected evolution of the atmospheric column, including the vertical profile of wet-bulb temperature, rain should be the predominant precip type Monday night through Wednesday. However, rain may mix with wet snow early Tuesday morning in interior NW PA. Net CAA at the surface and aloft should contribute to rain mixing with or changing to snow in a general west to east manner Wednesday night through Thanksgiving and then allow snow to be the predominant precip type Thanksgiving night through Friday. Accumulating snow is possible. It remains way too soon to discuss specific snow amounts, but we will continue to closely monitor trends in deterministic NWP models and ensemble forecast systems, including probabilistic forecasts from NBM, over the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... This TAF update will continue with widespread low ceilings in the MVFR category to some IFR across the area for this afternoon into tonight. There is a low pressure system that track through the lower Ohio Valley region tonight and bring a round of light rain across parts of northern Ohio. Generally MVFR to lower end MVFR ceilings are expected at TOL, FDY, CLE, YNG, and ERI this afternoon through the overnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to impact MFD and CAK going into this evening and overnight. The lowest ceilings or IFR will be for short time window this evening at MFD and CAK before the light rain moves in. As the light rain spreads over northern Ohio, ceilings may actually improve slightly into the upper end of MVFR. We do have some TEMPO groups at FDY, MFD, CLE, CAK, and YNG for visibility reductions between 3sm and 5sm due to light rain and mist or BR. A big improvement of aviation conditions is expected to arrive by Saturday morning through the end of this TAF period midday Saturday. Skies will generally clear out after 12z Saturday, some locations may be after 15z. Winds will be light in nature starting out from the southwest around 4 to 7 knots this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will move through overnight with a wind shift from the northwest to northerly around 5 to 7 knots late tonight through Saturday morning. Outlook...VFR is then favored Saturday through Monday, though will need to monitor how quickly the stratus clears into the weekend. Non-VFR in rain showers possible Monday night and Tuesday. && .MARINE... West-southwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon and early evening will become northerly 5-15 knots behind a cold front overnight. Waves will generally be 1 to 2 feet tonight. High pressure will briefly build over the lake on Saturday with light northwest winds 5-10 knots and waves 2 feet or less. A warm front will lift across the lake Saturday night with a return of southwesterly winds increasing 10 to 20 knots by early Sunday morning. Another fast moving cold front will move through the Great Lakes on Sunday shifting the winds more westerly 10 to 20 knots. There may need to be a brief Small Craft Advisory Sunday with waves building around between 3 and 6 feet across the central and eastern basin of the lake. We will continue to monitor trends in the coming forecast updates. These winds should weaken by Sunday night to 5-10 knots and become more southerly again Monday and into Tuesday. A stronger low pressure system may develop over the Midwest and move across the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week, bringing gusty winds and the potential for hazardous marine conditions to Lake Erie. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...77 MARINE...77