572 FXUS63 KMKX 160330 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 930 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Colder but more seasonable temperatures are expected tonight into next week. - A rain or rain/snow mix (40 to 70 percent chances) are still forecast for Monday night into Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 930 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Breezy northwest winds and a few high clouds at times will persist through the night, but otherwise a quiet night is expected. Overall, the forecast looks on track through the rest of the night. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Tonight through Monday: Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight into Sunday, as cold air advection pushes through the region. This will bring colder but more seasonable temperatures to the area. There may be some lingering stratocumulus clouds that linger into this evening, though they should dissipate by midnight. Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs Sunday in the middle to upper 40s. Wind chills will be in the 20s later tonight and mainly in the 30s on Sunday. High pressure will then shift southeast into the region Sunday night, helping to bring lighter winds. Lows should drop into the middle 20s for most of the area. A dry day with light winds and seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, as the high slowly shifts to the east. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Monday night through Saturday: Models generally take a surface low from the central Plains across Missouri and southern Illinois Monday night into Tuesday night while slowly weakening. Ensembles are similar with this low track during this period. A 500 mb shortwave trough shifts east southeast across the region later Monday night into Tuesday, providing upward vertical motion from differential CVA associated with it. There is some indications of a low level jet nose trying to point into central and northern Illinois, perhaps into far southern Wisconsin. The focused warm air advection in the low levels seems to remain just south of the area, though the baroclinic zone gets pretty close to the Wisconsin and Illinois border area. 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response also pushes east southeast through the area. Thus, there should be enough upward vertical motion and deep air column moisture to bring a round of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. Continued to carry generally 40 to 70 percent PoPs for this period, highest in the south and central areas and lower to the far north. As far as precipitation types go, it looks to be mainly a rain/snow mix potential, though the isothermal look to some of the forecast soundings may allow for some ice pellets to occur. For now, surface and near-surface temperatures may stay warm enough for mainly rain in the south, with a mix more possible in the northern parts of the forecast area. This forecast may change as we get closer and the thermal structure of this system becomes more apparent. Keep up with the forecast. Deterministic models and ensembles are then showing a more organized low pressure system shifting northeast from the southern Plains through the western Great Lakes region later in the week. At this time, the track appears to be just southeast of the area on Friday, though there may be many fluctuations to this as we move into next week. Temperature profiles suggest mainly rain at this time, but will see how things evolve with this system. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 930 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Breezy northwest winds will continue tonight and Sunday, with gusts ramping back up a bit mid-morning tomorrow into the afternoon due to daytime mixing. Winds will then gradually ease later tomorrow into tomorrow night as high pressure builds in from the west. Areas of high clouds are expected at times tonight into tomorrow, with mostly clear skies otherwise. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 224 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Brisk northwest winds are expected to continue into Sunday. Wind gusts around 30 knots are expected during this period, with a few gale force gusts possible in the northern third of the open waters, as well as along the eastern lakeshore areas. Still do not have high enough confidence for gusts exceeding gale force for extended period, thus will continue to hold off on gale headlines at this time. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, for gusty northwest winds. Winds begin to ease Sunday night through Monday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the Upper Midwest. Another low pressure system around 29.8 inches is expected to track from the Central Plains to south of Lake Michigan through the middle of next week. This may result in increasing easterly winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee