620 FXUS64 KLIX 150457 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1057 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through the next seven days. - This morning and tonight some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. Super fog may be possible near ongoing marsh fires causing visibilities to decrease to near zero. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 The synoptic pattern illustrates a continued ridge centered over the western Gulf and Central US. The ridge will promote above average temperatures across the CWFA. Eventually, this pattern will begin to transition going into Sunday. The ridge flattens allowing for a more zonal flow to take shape over the region. Surface high pressure remains in control with a subtle return flow still positioned over the region. Although subtle, it is enough to keep a steady flow of low level moisture into the region. With the subsidence in the upper levels, the column will be mostly dry with mostly clear skies. With the very lackluster surface flow, and clear skies...and the increase in low level moisture, patchy to areas of dense radiation fog will be possible. Another signal is in the crossover temperatures across the region. Fog will be possible both this morning and perhaps Sunday morning before the low level flow increases. Where we have ongoing marsh fires, super fog will be likely again this morning. Continued the dense fog advisory through the morning for the entire CWFA. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 The upper flow will remain zonal to start the new workweek. This will continue to promote above average temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s west of I55. At the surface the high pressure finally starts to spread east a bit allowing for pressure gradient to tighten a bit increasing the low level flow. This will begin to limit overnight fog concerns...although low stratus will still be possible during the overnight and morning hours. As the flow increases Tuesday and into Wednesday, low level moisture quality will continue to improve. With the stronger return flow and more low level moisture, globals do have a very weak QPF signal over the open waters and immediate coast. Cannot rule out a rogue streamer shower or two Wednesday and Thursday. Going into the end of the week, another H5 ridge develops over the Gulf. This will place our region in an active southwesterly flow aloft. Surface flow continues to increase and becomes moderate over the region. Upstream, a broad scale trough resides over the Four Corners. Globals have come into slightly better agreement on timing and strength of the storm system moving from the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes Region. By Friday the ridge over the Gulf begins to flatten allowing the front to move through the region into the start of the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern supports the risk of strong to severe storms somewhere over the lower MS River Valley or Midsouth as a negatively tilted trough spreads north and east. However, it is too soon to know what specific impacts we will have locally. At this juncture, it actually appears the better jet dynamics and support will be just to our north and west, but with plenty of shear and at least modest instability around a conditional threat could exist depending on the evolution of this system. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR conditions into the overnight hours will give way to IFR?LIFR for most terminals as widespread dense fog develops across the region early this morning. The fog will quickly mix out by 14-15z leading to VFR VIS/CIGs through the remainder of the cycle. Light southerly winds will also continue with most locations seeing winds less than 10kts through the period. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Surface high pressure will generally remain centered over the Southeast US through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the start of next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 76 53 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 79 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 76 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 78 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 76 54 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 77 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF