511 FXUS64 KBRO 101130 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 530 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 - A Gale Warning is in effect through 9 AM this afternoon for the Gulf waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre through this afternoon. - A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect through at least this evening along the Lower Texas beaches. Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high tide. - Low temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 30s to upper 40s Monday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Latest marine observations continue to indicate gusts at or near gale force over the Gulf waters. Therefore, based on latest trends will extend the current Gale Warning until 9 AM for the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed later this morning into the afternoon for the Gulf waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected for the next couple days in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Wind speeds through Sunday evening have trended lower than guidance, with wind gusts diminishing across most inland areas. Model guidance continues to show wind gusts from 25-30 mph overnight into midday Monday. This guidance doesn't align with recent observations across the region, which show generally light winds around 10 mph for the past couple hours. With the cooler temperatures and lack of solar heating, the boundary layer may remain decoupled overnight, which would not support stronger gusts mixing to the surface. Due to this uncertainty, the the wind gust forecast has been capped at 25 mph across inland portions of the CWA. Low temperatures are expected to fall to the mid 40s to low 50s by sunrise Monday morning, with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s Monday. Monday night will likely be the coldest night this week, with low temperatures falling to the upper 30s to mid 40s across the northern counties and mid to upper 40s across the Rio Grande Valley. Southeasterly winds are expected to return Tuesday, allowing for a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the work week. Another cold front may approach the region next weekend, though it is too far out to begin focusing on the specific impacts it may bring. Dangerous beach conditions are expected to continue Monday. Winds along the coast and over the Gulf waters are forecast to remain elevated into Monday afternoon, continuing to support high surf and increased rip current activity and intensity. The High Surf Advisory and the High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect through Monday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Breezy northwest to northerly winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Moderate northerly winds with some gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected into the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease later this afternoon into this evening. Light and variable winds are expected later tonight. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue overnight, with Gale Force wind gusts and 10-12 ft seas on the coastal Gulf waters. The Gale Warning remains in effect until 6 AM Monday. Winds and seas will likely begin to subside by sunrise, and gradually improve through the day Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed into the early afternoon Monday. On the Laguna Madre, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until noon Monday, and may need to be extended for a few hours as models show 20-25 knot winds continuing into the afternoon. However recent observations along the Laguna Madre have been below guidance, and on the low end of Small Craft Advisory criteria. If winds continue to improve, an extension may not be required, and it is possible the Advisory could be canceled early. Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to return by Monday night, though this will likely be short lived as increased wind speeds over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon may require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or another Small Craft Advisory. Adverse conditions may return again near the end of the forecast, as another Cold front may approach the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 There is some uncertainty in the fire weather forecast for Monday afternoon, largely relating to the 20 foot wind speeds across the area. Low relative humidity values are expected Monday afternoon, with minimum values ranging from 10-15% across all but the coastal counties and 15-25% across inland portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. 20 foot wind speeds, however, are forecast to remain just below 15 mph through the morning and decrease through the afternoon. To further complicate the forecast, recent observations have remained below most of the model guidance, and if that trend continues, these lower wind speeds would further limit the fire weather concerns Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 49 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 44 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 48 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 42 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 55 75 70 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 51 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...63-KC