754 FXUS66 KPQR 091116 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 316 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues today as high pressure continues to build over the Pacific Northwest. Offshore flow will peak this morning and gradually weaken throughout the day. A weak shortwave trough will bring chances for light rain across the area tonight into Monday. High pressure re-builds on Tuesday, briefly returning dry weather. A stronger low pressure system arrives Wednesday, returning widespread rain. Snow levels drop late in the week, returning chances for snow over the Cascade passes. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday night...An upper level ridge will continue to amplify today, maintaining dry weather and slightly above normal high temperatures across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Highs are forecast to peak in the low to mid 60s for most areas, except slightly cooler in the Columbia River Gorge, south WA Cascades, and Upper Hood River Valley as easterly winds continue to bring cooler air from central/eastern Oregon. The latest surface observations as of 3 AM Saturday show easterly wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in the far eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro and up to 45-50 mph at exposed ridgetops (Three Corner Rock). Light easterly winds are also present along the coast. Pressure gradients from Troutdale to The Dalles (KTTD-KDLS) are peaking early Sunday morning around -6 to -7 mb and are expected to gradually ease today. As these pressure gradients ease, easterly winds will also weaken through the Gorge and along the coast. Expect a transition to more southerly winds along the coast after 1-3 PM today. Late tonight into Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten as a shortwave trough pushes into southern British Columbia and far northwest Washington. High-res ensemble guidance suggests that the front associated with this upper level shortwave will be very weak as it quickly brushes our area tonight. This scenario would result in very light rain with low precipitation amounts. There is high confidence (70-80% chance) that 24 hour rain amounts between 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM Monday remain less than 0.10" for most places. Currently, the highest chances for rain are along the coast and southwest Washington (50-80%) as this weak front is tracking further north, while chances for rain are lower (20-40%) across interior northwest Oregon. In terms of timing, light rain may arrive as early as this evening along the coast, spreading inland through Monday morning. Conditions gradually dry up Monday evening as the weak front progresses inland. Tuesday, another shortwave upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest and this will bring a brief return of dry weather. However, by Wednesday, this ridge quickly gets pushed eastward as a more robust low pressure system in the NE Pacific takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. This stronger system will bring rain and cooler air back into the forecast. Current ensemble guidance has precipitation likely (70% chance) starting Wednesday morning as the associated cold front moves in. Behind the front, cooler air will settle in and bring snow levels down to pass-level in the Cascades Thursday-Friday. Current guidance suggests a 40-60% chance that 48-hour snow totals between 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM Saturday exceed 6 inches through the passes, with the highest chances at the Santiam and Willamette Passes. An active weather pattern continues into the weekend. -10 && .AVIATION...High pressure inland continues to support offshore flow and largely VFR conditions across the region. Gusts of 20-30 kt reach west of the Columbia Gorge to KPDX/KTTD and through other east-west oriented terrain gaps, but will trend downward this morning as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. These east winds will inhibit any fog formation at both Portland-area terminals as well as along the coast. Across the central and southern Willamette Valley, there is a 20-30% chance for IFR/LIFR VIS and CIGs due to potential fog/mist and low stratus development between 12-18z Sun. If northerly winds in these areas remain higher, a low stratus deck may be favored instead of surface-based fog. High cloud cover may also prevent fog. Any fog and low stratus that develops this morning should clear out by 18-20z Sun as daytime heating progresses. CIGs begin to trend downward late in the TAF period as a weak frontal system approaches the coast, bringing a 60-80% chance for IFR/MVFR CIGs along the coast after 06-09z Mon and chances for light rain. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with SCT/BKN high clouds. Easterly winds around 5-10 kt, strongest this morning and gradually weakening. -10/36 && .MARINE...High pressure inland will continue to drive offshore easterly winds, turning southerly to southeasterly on Sunday as a weak front approaches the waters, decreasing to 8-12 kt as gap- flow easterly winds end. Seas will generally remain 6-9 ft at 10-12 seconds through Sunday. Wind direction varies through the first half of next week, but wind speeds look to remain at 5-10 kt through Wednesday morning. There is also high confidence (greater than 95% chance) that seas remain below 10 ft through midweek as well. An area of low pressure strengthening well offshore will return breezy southerly winds and building seas, increasing the chances (60-80% chance) for another period of conditions hazardous to small craft late Wednesday into Thursday. There is also a 30-60% chance for Gale-force wind gusts greater than 34 kt during this period, with the highest chances across the outer waters beyond 20-30 NM. -10/36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland