850 FXUS66 KMTR 020924 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 124 AM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 AM PDT Sun Nov 2 2025 - Quiet and warm continues today with hazardous beach conditions along Pacific Coast beaches - Beneficial rainfall expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Highest totals North Bay. - Potential for gusty winds with cold frontal passage Wednesday morning, 40-50 mph across Bay Area and North Bay. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 124 AM PDT Sun Nov 2 2025 (Today and tonight) Another warm and quiet day today before things start to change for the week. Afternoon highs about 5-7 degrees above normal away from the coast, near normal along the coast. Patchy dense fog this morning along coastal areas will mimic yesterday morning, but give way to clear skies by mid-morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 124 AM PDT Sun Nov 2 2025 (Monday through Saturday) Once again no major changes to the forecast from previous. This does hint towards higher confidence in the current forecast from simply moving closer to the event. A couple of items to note now that some details are more clear. Thunder chances are increasing Wednesday morning along the surface front. This would primarily affect North Bay counties at this juncture, but still can't rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two across the greater Bay Area by late Wednesday morning. Prior to Wednesday morning, there is a chance for showers across the northern portions of the North Bay through Tuesday. This is a smaller chance and the showers would be lighter in general, but these showers along the warm front are typically efficient rain makers despite their lackluster appearance on radar (lookup warm rain vs. cold rain processes if your curious). Despite this system not really "stalling", we can sometimes see these features act as a precursor for flooding impacts once the heavier rain associated with the cold front arrives. The North Bay is currently teetering on the edge of this axis of warm frontal showers Tuesday, so we'll need to keep an eye on that when assessing the potential for local flooding impacts. Still looking at wind being more of a problem across the North Bay and Bay Area as a whole. 50-60 kt flow at 850 mb will translate across the region Wednesday morning along the cold front. This will likely result in 40-50 mph gusts as the front passes. Wind impacts lessen as you go move south. Still too early to nail down Wind Advisory decisions, but Wednesday morning certainly looks like it could be a candidate for areas north of San Jose and through the North Bay. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Confidence in the forecast remains low to medium, but the latest satellite imagery does show a gradual development of marine stratus. As a result, the latest iteration of the TAFs holds remains largely unchanged. Conditions will deteriorate between 06-08Z Sun at KHAF and North Bay sites with ceilings and visibilities approaching airport minimums. The window for IFR farther south remains the same around 10Z at KOAK. Intermittent MVFR at KSJC is still anticipated, through the probability is low and I do anticipate that it'll be brief/occasional. The compressed marine layer should equate to a rapid erosion of stratus, mist, and fog by 17-18Z, except at KHAF where poor conditions remain through mid- afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR and intermittent IFR are forecast with medium confidence. At present time, cigs are anticipated to invade just prior to 11Z with occasional IFR. Guidance continues to remain insistent in IFR and this is the trickiest part of the forecast, as climatologically this is out of the norm. Future updates will likely need to alter the timing. VFR is anticipated to return late morning with diurnal NW'ly breezes funneling through the San Bruno Gap. There are some indications that MVFR/IFR may return after 00Z Monday, but from a big picture, there may be some dry air that chews up some of the moist marine layer air on the backside of a developing surface low. Given some of the variability in the extended portion of the TAF, I'll advertise VFR, but trends in model output will be monitored. SFO Bridge Approach...VAPS currently, but loss of VAPS likely by the Sunday AM push. Cigs should scatter near or after 18Z Sunday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has been a little slow to develop, but it is in progress across southern portions of the Monterey Peninsula. LIFR to VLIFR visibility and ceilings appear to be most likely at these terminals for a few hours on Sunday morning with VFR not returning near or after 18Z. Confidence in exact timing of stratus development is low, but there's high confidence that by the 6Z to 9Z timeframe that LIFR/VLIFR will be in place at the terminals. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 922 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Fresh to near gale-force breezes will continue through Sunday before abating early Monday, except for regions near Monterey Bay and south of Point Sur. Gentle to moderate breezes should be anticipated on Tuesday, before a vigorous storm system approaches. Very hazardous boating conditions are anticipated on Wednesday as gale force, possibly severe, wind gusts are probable. The greatest potential will be for areas near and north of Point Reyes. Steep seas and very rough conditions should be anticipated around mid- week. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will also pose lightning, higher end wind, and poor visibility risk to all mariners. && .BEACHES... Issued at 922 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches through Monday. The sneaker wave risk remains low to moderate through Monday and will likely elevate through the middle to end of next week. High surf conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean! Bain/Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea