223 FXUS66 KMTR 301010 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 310 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 303 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2025 - Pleasant weather and slightly above normal temperatures continue through this weekend - Cooling trend begins Monday with seasonal temperatures returning - Unsettled weather returns early to mid next week with rain likely across the Bay Area and Central Coast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 303 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2025 (Today and tonight) Bit of a change compared to the last two nights for any night owls, the approaching shortwave trough is allowing the marine layer to deepen with widespread stratus developing over the marine environment. Stratus and fog are possible along the coastline and across the North Bay Interior Valleys this morning. A dry cold front will pass through the Bay Area today and bring cooler, more seasonal temperatures to the region. This will be a fairly noticeable difference with high temperatures running anywhere between 5 to 10 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Interior high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, upper 60s to low 70s along the bay shoreline, and in the upper 50s to 60s along the coastline. Temperatures will remain warmer across the interior Central Coast where highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Light offshore flow continues across the interior mountain ranges with winds to become onshore by this afternoon. Winds strengthen across the marine environment today with breezy afternoon winds along the coastline and within valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 303 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2025 (Friday through Wednesday) Upper level ridging and high pressure return Friday and bring warmer temperatures back to the Bay Area. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior while coastal areas stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures cool slightly Monday as the center of the upper level ridge progresses eastward and an upper level trough approaches from the west. High temperatures across the interior on Monday will generally be in the 70s while coastal areas stay in the 60s. Temperatures drop more noticeably, as the trough arrives, Tuesday and Wednesday with interior high temperatures dropping into the 60s to low 70s and coastal areas in the upper 50s to 60s. Given the pleasant fall weekend on tap, it would be a good time to make sure any outdoors items are secured and gutters are clear ahead of next weeks potential rain event. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding our incoming system. First off, guidance has remained consistent in showing a deep upper level trough extending into the Bay Area and Central Coast arriving next week. However, guidance has pushed back the arrival of the trough from Monday/Tuesday to Tuesday/Wednesday. This makes Monday more of a transition day from upper level ridging to upper level troughing rather than the first day of our next system. Ensemble members are leaning towards the bulk of this system taking place Wednesday/Thursday so we may see further adjustments to the timing of this system as it gets closer. Both the ECMWF and GFS are coming on board that the Bay Area and Central Coast will see precipitation early to mid next week but uncertainty remains as to how much we will see. Ensemble guidance continues to show a split between "boom" (moderate amount of rain) vs "bust" (little rain) scenarios. For example, using the 00Z 30th October GFS run, out of 30 ensemble members 14 members show the Santa Rosa Airport receiving greater than 1 inch of rain in 24 hours while 16 show it receiving less than an inch of rain in 24 hours. Ensemble guidance from the ECMWF shows a similar split between members showing higher precipitation totals vs lower precipitation totals. We will start to see a better consensus on precipitation totals as this system approaches and the timing/track of the system come into better focus. Winds look to strengthen around the time of frontal passage but currently stay below Wind Advisory criteria. Specifics relating to this system are likely to continue evolving as it gets closer in time so residents are advised to stay up to date with the forecast as we head into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 904 PM PDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Currently VFR across our area as we transition from offshore flow to onshore flow overnight into Thursday morning, bringing a return to low stratus ceilings and possibly patchy dense fog at times. Coverage of the stratus may be limited with the marine layer expected to be between approximately 500ft to 1000ft Vicinity of SFO...Onshore flow may produce limited low stratus coverage and ceilings early Thursday morning with low confidence on exact timing and coverage. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with a slight chance of low stratus ceilings in the vicinity of the terminals. Low confidence on coverage and timing if the low ceilings develop. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected through most of the overnight with a chance of patchy dense fog and low stratus ceilings developing in the pre-dawn hours. Higher confidence for low ceilings at KSNS where the return of onshore flow will filter through the Salinas Valley. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 303 AM PDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Moderate to fresh breezes are expected with occasional near gale force winds over the outer waters and nearshore south of Point Sur through the weekend. Seas build into the day but subside slightly on Friday then rebuild again over the weekend with a longer period swell. Winds reduce into the early work week but build again in the mid week ahead of frontal passages and rain chances. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...JM MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea