759 FXUS61 KCLE 300858 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 458 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A trough should linger over our region today through Saturday night. Simultaneously, the primary low embedded in this trough should wobble northeastward from the central Appalachians to the Canadian Maritimes by early Saturday morning and then wobble farther northeastward through Saturday night. On Sunday, a ridge should build over our region from the southern Great Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Up in the mid/upper-levels, an extensive trough lingers over the eastern United States and vicinity through tonight. Within this trough, the 500 mb low should wobble generally NE'ward from near the eastern KY/eastern TN border area to eastern NY by daybreak Friday as a potent jet streak just east of the 500 mb low translates generally NE'ward from the southeast U.S. to New England. Focused divergence aloft and MSLP falls associated with the left-front quadrant of the jet streak should allow the primary surface low to deepen and wobble NE'ward from the central Appalachians to near the border of QC and VT by daybreak Friday. Accordingly, the surface trough in which the surface low is embedded will linger over our region. This low track at the surface and aloft will keep northern OH and NW PA in the cold sector and allow CAA at/near the surface to persist. Daytime highs should reach the upper 40's to lower 50's today. Tonight's lows should reach the mid 30's to mid 40's. As the low pressure system's warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL, continues to undergo isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into abundant moisture from the Gulf and southern Gulf Stream, widespread rain will impact our region today. Rain will be steady to heavy at times due to the following: the release of weak potential instability via frontogenetical convergence and moist ascent in the TROWAL; lake-enhancement of rain via the seeder-feeder process and weak to moderate lake-induced CAPE amidst a sufficiently-cold and moist low/mid-level atmospheric column over ~14C Lake Erie. Lake-enhanced rain (LEnR) will stream generally WSW'ward from Lake Erie early this morning before beginning to stream generally SW'ward around daybreak as mean low-level flow backs from ENE'erly to NE'erly. As mean low-level flow continues to back to N'erly, LEnR should begin to stream generally S'ward from Lake Erie by this late afternoon and early evening. The warm conveyor belt, including TROWAL, and associated widespread rain will then exit our region generally from WSW to ENE this evening through tonight given the projected track of the low at the surface and aloft. Accordingly, LEnR should transition to pure lake-effect rain (LER), steady to heavy at times, as mid-level moisture decreases and the seeder-feeder process ceases, yet the low-level atmospheric column remains sufficiently-cold and moist over and downwind of Lake Erie and lake-induced CAPE remains weak to moderate. The LEnR and then LER should stream generally S'ward and then SE'ward from Lake Erie as mean low- level flow backs from N'erly to NW'erly. Most of our CWA is expected to receive an additional 0.75" to 2.00" of rainfall through tonight. However, less rainfall is expected in our I-75 corridor counties due to a shorter cumulative duration of precip. Here, additional rainfall should range from 0.10" to 0.75" with a tight west-to-east gradient. Note: CAA across ~14C Lake Erie will maintain an unstable marine boundary layer through tonight. The resulting lake-induced convective mixing of the boundary layer over and immediately downwind of the lake will tap into stronger flow aloft. As a result, onshore surface winds, backing from NE'erly to NW'erly, should gust up to 35 to 45 mph along and near the lakeshore, especially from Ottawa County to Erie County, PA, at times, especially from about daybreak this morning through tonight. Refrained from issuing a Wind Advisory since various ensemble forecast systems indicate low probabilities (much less than 50%) for advisory criteria wind gusts (46 to 57 mph). && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region as the 500 mb low wobbles NE'ward from eastern NY toward northern ME and surface troughing lingers over our region. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible as moist isentropic ascent precedes the axes of the shortwave disturbances and low-level convergence/moist ascent along attendant surface trough axes release weak potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. During Friday night, the surface trough weakens over/near Lake Erie and a surface ridge attempts to build from the TN Valley and vicinity as the 500 mb low wobbles NE'ward across northern ME and vicinity to the Canadian Maritimes and a shortwave ridge aloft traverses our region from west to east. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, periods of LER, steady to perhaps heavy at times, are expected on Friday through Friday night, in/near the snow belt of NE OH/NW PA, amidst WNW'erly to NW'erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently cold/moist air over/downwind of Lake Erie and weak to moderate lake-induced CAPE over the lake. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 40's to lower 50's on Friday and overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Saturday as net low-level CAA persists. Note W'erly to NW'erly onshore surface winds should gust up to 35 to 45 mph immediately downwind of Lake Erie from Lorain County to Erie County, PA at times Friday into Friday night for similar reasons noted in the near-term discussion. Based on latest trends in model guidance, including ensemble forecast systems, there is limited potential for advisory-criteria gusts. On Saturday through Saturday night, the ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward as a shortwave trough axis approaches and eventually begins to enter our region from the west, allowing surface troughing to become reestablished easily across northern OH and NW PA. LER, steady to heavy at times, is expected over/downwind of Lake Erie, in/near the primary snow belt of NE OH/NW PA, as lake-induced CAPE remains weak to moderate and the mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air backs from W'erly toward WSW'erly. Outside of LER, periodic and isolated rain showers are possible along and ahead of the shortwave trough axis and attendant surface trough axis for the same reasons mentioned in the first paragraph of this section. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 40's to mid 50's on Saturday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Sunday. The above-mentioned trough axis at the surface and aloft will continue to shift E'ward across our region on Sunday and be followed by a narrow ridge at the surface and aloft building and then cresting E'ward across our CWA Sunday night. Isolated and periodic rain showers remain possible along and ahead of the trough axis at the surface and aloft for the same reasons mentioned in the first paragraph of the short- term section, although the potential for these showers is quite low at this time. Lingering LER should stream generally E'ward or NE'ward from Lake Erie as the mean low-level flow of sufficiently- cold/moist air should vary between W'erly and SW'erly and lake- induced CAPE should be at least weak. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the lower to mid 50's on Sunday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak Monday as a chilly air mass persists over the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave disturbances, and net surface troughing should impact northern OH and NW PA on Monday through Tuesday. Periodic and isolated rain showers may accompany the shortwave disturbances and attendant surface through axes. LER should persist over and downwind of Lake Erie as a suffciently-cold/moist mean low-level flow veers gradually from SW'erly to NW'erly with the E'ward passage of a primary shortwave trough axis. Afternoon highs should reach mainly the 50's on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. In between, overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 30's to mid 40's around daybreak Tuesday. During Tuesday night through Wednesday, a ridge at the surface and aloft should build from the west and eventually crest E'ward across northern OH and NW PA. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. As net low-level WAA and a lowering subsidence inversion accompany the ridge and cause lake-induced CAPE to wane considerably, primarily light and NW'erly mean low-level flow-related LER showers should end gradually Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Wednesday should feature morning lows mainly in the mid 30's to lower 40's around daybreak and afternoon highs in the lower 50's to lower 60's. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The main message for aviation weather with this late night 06z TAF update will be deteriorating conditions both ceilings and visibilities later this morning and through the afternoon. Conditions are starting about VFR to MVFR as of 06z. Widespread light to moderate rain will continue to move across the area this morning into the afternoon. Ceilings will lower between 500 to 900 feet for all TAF sites later this morning with the exception of maybe TOL. We have TOL lowering to low end MVFR ceilings. Visibilities from light to moderate rain and mist will drop between 1 and 3 sm for most TAF sites later this morning into the afternoon. By the evening and towards the end of the TAF period, conditions will improve for TOL and FDY to VFR. For MFD and CLE, low end MVFR expected by this evening. The rest of the TAFs will likely stay in IFR into this evening. Winds will increase from the north and northeast this morning 12 to 17 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Winds will become northwesterly 12 to 17 knots this afternoon with gusts around 25 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend with lake effect clouds and rain showers. && .MARINE... Conditions over the lake will become rough today with Easterly to Northeasterly Gales of 35 to 40 knots. A strong low pressure system will pass by to the east of Lake Erie later in the day. Winds will become more Northerly then Northwesterly by this evening. Waves in the open water will be 8 to 13 feet today. Waves in the nearshore water will be 4 to 8 feet. At this time, we do not have Gales for the Lake Erie Islands but that will be monitored for possible expansion of the Gale Warning. Later tonight, will be decrease below Gales to 25 to 34 knots from the Northwest and continue into Friday. Waves will range 5 to 10 feet later tonight into Friday as well. Winds and waves will slowly decrease Friday night into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed after the Gale Warning ends late Thursday evening. A weak high pressure system will move over the lake Saturday night with lighter winds and waves. A Southwesterly flow will return over the lake on Sunday 5 to 15 knots and those SW winds will increase 20 to 30 knots by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ144>149. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>149-164>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...77 MARINE...77