645 
FXUS63 KMKX 291917
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
217 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the nearshore 
  waters through 10 PM CDT Thursday evening, as winds and waves 
  are expected to drop below thresholds by that time.

- Lake effect clouds should occur at times today into Thursday,
  though any showers may be difficult to come by with limited 
  moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

Lake effect daytime cu is expected to linger until sunset this
evening and generally decrease. However, winds off of the lake
will continue to promote low cloud cover into tonight on a more
scattered basis.

Increasing surface pressure will continue to promote generally dry
conditions tonight into tomorrow as low pressure moves 
southeast of the state. Winds are expected to come around to a
more northerly direction by daybreak, but there will be some 
slight chances (10%) for sprinkles along the Lake Michigan 
shoreline during the late morning to early afternoon as
shoreline convergence drives small chances for rain.

Heading into Thursday night, a weak trough is expected to sink
southeast out of Minnesota. Mid level lapse rates may steepen
enough to support showers, although CAMs are very hit or miss on
their coverage and CAMs also depict some dry air lingering at
the surface, so have left things dry for now.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

A weak cutoff low is expected to move south out of the northern
plains on Friday. ECMWF and CAM solutions depict scattered 
showers Friday afternoon into Friday night as the cutoff low
moves overhead. Showers may linger into Saturday, before
conditions briefly dry as warm advection kicks in on Sunday
ahead of an approaching front. Some weak showers and then
expected along a front Sunday night into early Monday morning,
but chances remain low (15 to 25%) at this time. 

Conditions then look to remain dry through the rest of the
extended period, with a large ridge to the south of the state
promoting mild temperatures (highs in the upper 50s to near 60)
for the start of November.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions will persist through the rest of the
afternoon as daytime cu persist. Expect these clouds to
generally decrease in coverage this evening after sunset, but
remain scattered in nature into the overnight hours. 

Tomorrow, VFR conditions will continue amid lighter north winds.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Low pressure of 29.6 inches will move from southern Appalachia
toward New England tonight through tomorrow.

As this happens gusty northeast winds will turn north Thursday
afternoon and eventually northwest Thursday night into Friday. 
Gales are not anticipated as winds are expected to peak around 
30 knots across southern portions of the lake through the rest
of this afternoon, then remain at or below 25 knots through
tomorrow. Moderate northwest to north winds are then 
anticipated into Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM 
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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