976 FXUS66 KMTR 290610 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1110 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Pleasant weather through this weekend with temperatures slightly above seasonal averages - Mild offshore flow through Wednesday morning && .UPDATE... Issued at 801 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Fantastic fall-weather around the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. Temperatures were several degrees above seasonal averages with many locations well into the 80s. As discussed below, offshore flow was one of the main drivers for today's weather. Any locations in a downslope favored regions received a little extra boost in temps due to compressional warming. Some of the hottest interior/downslope locations peaked at 87-89 degrees. The other noteworthy thing from the offshore flow is the lack of clouds. Evening satellite fog product shows some coastal stratus forming near Point Arena, but its nearshore development is being buffeted by the offshore flow. The larger scale offshore gradient will maintain overnight keeping mild temps and stratus away from the coastline. Despite the offshore flow not expecting widespread fire weather concerns. A quick look at region fire indices shows some response to the mild/dry/offshore flow, but indices were so far in the tank due to early Oct precip they're now returning to average. No update this evening... MM && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1217 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 (This evening through Wednesday) A look at the latest satellite imagery shows nary a cloud in the sky across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Upper level ridging has taken hold and is causing the warmer temperatures that we will see through the next couple of days. This is being reinforced by mild offshore flow, the product of a pressure gradient from a thermal trough over the state and surface high pressure system over the northern Rockies. The SFO-WMC gradient peaked at around 14-15Z (7-8 AM Pacific time) with a gradient value of -10.3 mb. The gradient has begun to relax since then, but as of 18Z (11 AM) it was still very robust at -9.4 mb. Across the higher elevations, light to gentle offshore breezes are expected to continue through Wednesday morning, before diminishing through the day. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the lower to middle 70s close to the Bays, and the middle to upper 60s along the Pacific coast. Tomorrow, highs will rise a few degrees in the inland areas, with lower to middle 80s in the inland valleys and the middle 70s to near 80 in the Bayside areas. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1217 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday) By Thursday, the offshore winds will turn towards a more onshore pattern, as the upper level ridging decays into a more zonal flow, allowing for enhanced cloud cover across the Bay Area. Highs in the Bay Area interior valleys dip into the lower to middle 70s, with the San Francisco Bay seeing highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s. The Pacific coast will see highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while the interior Central Coast remains warm in the upper 70s to the middle 80s. Temperatures recover on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the inland valleys, and the lower to middle 70s close to the bays, with the warmer conditions continuing into the weekend as the upper level ridge rebuilds itself. The next chance for rain arrives right at the end of the 7-day forecast period and continues through the middle of the first full week of November. Ensemble model products are suggesting that an upper level trough will develop in the northeast Pacific and move into the West Coast. Beyond that, details are impossible to pin down, and interested parties should keep an eye on the forecast updates as the weather pattern evolves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Nearly widespread VFR through he TAF period. The exception looks to be STS which will be affected by some localized patches of fog into the early morning, but this should clear before the mid morning. Expect light winds through the night and morning before moderate winds arrive for the afternoon. Winds for most areas look to become light again into Wednesday evening, while a few near- coast sites keep moderate winds. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. WInds reduce into the night, becoming light. Expect light west winds into the afternoon before more moderate west winds arrive in the mid afternoon. These moderate west winds are expected to last beyond the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR Through the TAF period. Expect light and variable winds to last into Wednesday afternoon before winds increase slightly and turn west to northwesterly. Winds become light again into Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1110 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Persistent moderate northerly flow over the waters for much of the week. Winds will be locally stronger with occasional gale force gusts over the outer waters and nearshore south of Point Sur. Seas stay light into Wednesday, but build into Thursday. Seas should subside some on Friday and rebuild again over the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea