269 FXUS61 KCLE 281903 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure currently resides over eastern Canada and will build off to the east this evening. On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move into the region from the southwest and move northeast towards New England by the end of the week. Lake effect rain showers will persist across the primary snow belt through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging is currently located across eastern Canada this evening and will begin to build off to the east into eastern Quebec by midday Wednesday. Concurrently, an upper level trough will begin to deepen into the mid Mississippi Valley and will eventually form a cut off low that will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday. There will be a fairly potent jet streak along the southern periphery of this cut off low as it moves northeastward through the middle of the week. Down at the surface, a low pressure system will form in conjunction with the upper level cut off low in the mid Mississippi Valley early on Wednesday. There will be plenty of southerly moisture advection and isentropic lift to form a large precipitation shield to the north and east of the low that will overcome the region late on Wednesday. This moisture advection will have to overcome the dry air that will be in place due to easterly flow across the region from this afternoon/evening. Though it should effectively wet bulb down through the column by late Wednesday. Another couple of notes about this system is that it has been trending slower over the past few model runs. It hasn't been significantly slower, but enough to mention it. The other note is that the low has been trending with a more easterly track as well before it makes its northeastward turn. Will need to keep tabs on this as it may impact the QPF as the system moves through. Temperatures in the near term will stay with a similar trend we've seen over the past few days with overnight lows tonight down into the mid to low 30s with areas near the lakeshore staying in the upper 30s. For Wednesday, highs will be in the mid 50s with overnight lows a little bit milder in the low 40s due to the influx of cloud cover from the south. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The surface low will be moving northeast along the Appalachian Mountains through the day on Thursday into Friday before pushing off into eastern Canada by late Friday. The bulk of the precipitation will fall during this time period and since the region will be on the north and west side of the low, expect the precipitation to fall as stratiform rain. Currently, the QPF through Friday morning is around 0.20-0.40" for the I-75 corridor and increasing moving eastward. From the I-71 corridor eastward, over an inch of rain is expected and within the primary snow belt, around an inch and a half of rain is expected. Now, with the caveats mentioned in the near term with how the system is trending, this may impact the current QPF totals. As the low moves off to the northeast, west-to-northwesterly flow will take hold across the region by midday Friday. This, along with 850 temperatures around 0C to -2C and lake temperatures in the mid 50s, will allow for a sufficient enough environment for lake effect showers to develop across the primary snow belt. Areas from Cleveland east through Erie, PA could see periodic showers throughout the day on Friday accompanied by winds gusting from 20-30 mph will make for an unpleasant evening to end the month of October for those in that area. Elsewhere outside the snow belt should stay dry after the low moves off, though will see similar gusty winds. Winds should start to subside as we move into the weekend. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be similar with highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows down into the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The lake effect showers in the snow belt will persist through much of the weekend as the mean low-level flow won't vary much. A ridge will attempt to build south of the region on Sunday, though model guidance at this point starts to differ with their outcomes. Depending on the strength of the ridge and its placement will determine when the lake effect showers end or if they continue to some degree into early next week. Similarly, with respect to model discrepancies, early next week an upper level trough will move out of Canada with the potential to move a clipper system across the region for another round of precipitation. Some models depict this as being a stronger trough than others, so will need to revisit this as we move into next week. Temperatures for the weekend and early next week look to stay around normal for both the highs and overnight lows. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... The airspace remains on the southwest side of high pressure centered over eastern Canada. This system will keep a low pressure system to the southwest for most of the TAF period. With the high in control, expecting dry and clear conditions. The pressure gradient across the region will result in easterly winds with intermittent gusts of 20-25 kts. The low will approach from the southwest on Wednesday and high level clouds will push north into the area. By the end of the 30 hour TAF for KCLE, some low VFR ceilings will spread into the area ahead of rain that will begin Wednesday evening. Outlook...Non-VFR expected in widespread periods of rain Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend with lake effect clouds and rain showers. && .MARINE... East-northeast flow is expected on Lake Erie through Thursday morning as we remain sandwiched between high pressure over Quebec and a developing low pressure over the southern portion of the CONUS. Winds of 15 to 25 knots will likely weaken to around 10 to 15 knots after daybreak before strengthening again to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie for this period of stronger winds. Winds gradually weaken to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early Wednesday. The aforementioned low is expected to develop to around 1000 mb as it moves northeast towards the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and then possibly deepening to sub-1000mb as it continues towards just south of Lake Erie by Thursday. As the low approaches, east-northeast winds should strengthen to 20-25 knots by Wednesday night, and then 25-30 knots on Thursday. Compared to previous forecasts, model guidance has trended towards a weaker low, and thus a much lower chance of gale-force winds (so gales are no longer in the official forecast right now). As the low continues northeastward towards Ontario/Quebec, winds become northwest Thursday night into Friday morning and then westerly Friday afternoon through Saturday. These winds are mostly likely to be around 25-30 knots late Thursday night through early Friday night before dissipating thereafter. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>146. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...23 NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Saunders