805 FXUS66 KMTR 261217 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 517 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions continue today - A second round of beneficial rain across the Bay Area today - Warming and drying trend starts Monday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 (Today and tonight) The next band of rain is just north of Sonoma County, but it's not moving south. A baroclinic leaf off the coast of northern California indicates a new surface low pressure system is forming. This cyclogenesis is supported by divergence aloft in the right rear quadrant of a 160 kt jet streak. The associated wind field will cause the boundary to transition to a warm front, and there are some indications that is already happening. The temperature has increased at Ukiah over the last hour, despite the fact that it's the middle of the night. This complicates the forecast as the warm front wants to move north while the parent low moves east. The low will make landfall in the late afternoon, dragging the final cold front across the Bay Area. Some strong wind and light rain will move through in the prefrontal region, with the impacts focused mainly in the North Bay. Frontal passage will be followed by quickly clearing skies through the evening. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 (Monday through Saturday) Really nice weather this week! The marine layer will remain disrupted by the fropa on Sunday, and Monday will start with mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures. The 850 mb temperature will quickly climb from 7C to around 17C by Tuesday as a ridge builds aloft. This will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s inland. Weak offshore winds will help bring some of this heat all the way to the coast, where it should be fantastic weather Tuesday - Wednesday. Coastal temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with no clouds, and a light breeze. A shallow trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, flattening the ridge. This won't have a drastic effect on our weather, other than deepening the marine layer and bringing some clouds back to the region. Ridging will continue into the weekend with warm, dry weather prevailing. Halloween looks great with comfortable temperatures and no real chance for rain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Light winds and mid to high level clouds are affecting the region. Spotty lowers CIGs and areas of fog are affecting the coast, the Monterey Bay and portions of the more interior valleys. A front is approaching from the north, bringing light showers and MVFR CIGs. This front will slowly move south through the day, with increasing southerly winds along the edge of the front. Showers will be the most organized in the North Bay and around the SF Bay, but showers scatter as they head farther south. Winds turn westerly in the wake of the front as CIGs scatter. Cloud cover erodes in the post frontal environment. Vicinity of SFO...VFR and light winds last through the morning. Mid- level and high clouds are building into the area ahead of the front. Expect winds to become breezy and turn more southwest into the afternoon as the front arrives. Light showers with slight reductions in visibilities are expected as the front passes over the terminal. Winds turn westerly as the front and it's showers and cloud cover exit. Winds reduce into the night and look to turn northerly into early Monday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs and pockets of fog linger into the mid morning before CIGs rise slightly and fog scatters. Expect VFR into the afternoons with winds increasing slightly. Shower activity arrives in the evening along the front, but showers will be spotty. The front and rain chances exit into the night with cloud cover clearing in the front's wake. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 516 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Light winds last through the night but winds build into Sunday morning, becoming breezy and gusty through the work week. Rough seas linger for the outer waters through the day, but seas will slowly start to abate Monday. Expect some light rains to move through the northern waters in the morning and through the afternoon, but exit into the evening. && .BEACHES... Issued at 702 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring large breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through Sunday night. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea