779 FXUS66 KMTR 260924 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 224 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions continue today - A second round of beneficial rain across the Bay Area today - Warming and drying trend starts Monday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 (Today and tonight) The next band of rain is just north of Sonoma County, but it's not moving south. A baroclinic leaf off the coast of northern California indicates a new surface low pressure system is forming. This cyclogenesis is supported by divergence aloft in the right rear quadrant of a 160 kt jet streak. The associated wind field will cause the boundary to transition to a warm front, and there are some indications that is already happening. The temperature has increased at Ukiah over the last hour, despite the fact that it's the middle of the night. This complicates the forecast as the warm front wants to move north while the parent low moves east. The low will make landfall in the late afternoon, dragging the final cold front across the Bay Area. Some strong wind and light rain will move through in the prefrontal region, with the impacts focused mainly in the North Bay. Frontal passage will be followed by quickly clearing skies through the evening. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 102 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 (Monday through Saturday) Really nice weather this week! The marine layer will remain disrupted by the fropa on Sunday, and Monday will start with mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures. The 850 mb temperature will quickly climb from 7C to around 17C by Tuesday as a ridge builds aloft. This will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s inland. Weak offshore winds will help bring some of this heat all the way to the coast, where it should be fantastic weather Tuesday - Wednesday. Coastal temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with no clouds, and a light breeze. A shallow trough will move through the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, flattening the ridge. This won't have a drastic effect on our weather, other than deepening the marine layer and bringing some clouds back to the region. Ridging will continue into the weekend with warm, dry weather prevailing. Halloween looks great with comfortable temperatures and no real chance for rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 858 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Another transient TAF period ahead as the cold front continues to move through and a surface low develops off the coast of the Bay Area. A surface trough will help kick off showers in the late-morning/early afternoon timeframe with rain showers only expected for the northernmost terminals with drizzle a more likely result for the southern terminals. Southerly winds will increase during this time before returning to onshore flow. Ceilings will ebb and flow generally in the MVFR to low-end VFR range. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. VFR is expected through the night with a low-end VFR ceiling. Rain showers return as early as late-morning with the best chance in the afternoon. Westerly winds will back through the night to become southerly/southwesterly by mid-morning, increasing through the afternoon to become gusty. Onshore winds return by tomorrow evening with ceilings likely in flux between MVFR and low-end VFR. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. SNS is expected to quickly deteriorate to IFR, with the potential for both to further deteriorate to LIFR if fog in the Monterey Bay expands. LIFR/IFR conditions will improve by late- morning with ceilings likely fluxing between MVFR and low-end VFR. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 858 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Rain showers continue through Sunday. A moderate to fresh northerly breeze will prevail Sunday through Thursday. Very rough seas for the outer waters and rough seas for the inner waters will prevail through Sunday, seas will slowly start to abate Monday to become rough to moderate respectfully by Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 702 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A moderate to long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring large breaking waves and an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through Sunday night. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions and never turn your back on the ocean! Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea