365 FXUS64 KTSA 260526 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy overall. - Another storm system impacts the region early next week with strong winds and low to medium chances for rain. - Below average temperatures forecast through the period. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday Night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Low clouds and areas of fog likely continue through the overnight period and into the morning hours. The upper low responsible for the recent rainfall will move directly overhead, then east today, with shower and thunder chances persisting across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Coverage will slowly decrease from west to east today before ending completely by late evening or early overnight as the low departs. Widespread cloudiness is likely for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today, while southern zones will see more sun breaks. Resulting high temps are held in the low-mid 60s north of I-40 and upper 60s/ lower 70s to the south. Low temperatures in the 50s (upper 40s for the typically colder spots) persist for Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 High pressure briefly fills in for Monday before the next system arrives on Tuesday. Amplified troughing moves into the central and northern plains, with a cutoff low forecast to develop over our area and into the Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday. The associated cold front surges into the region during the day, bringing low to medium rain/ thunder potential back to the forecast. Still generally expecting rain to remain on the lighter side (quarter inch or less for most areas), though guidance has generally trended QPF upward in recent runs and there are several model solutions which paint a corridor of higher totals near half an inch or greater somewhere in the FA. NBM QPF has increased accordingly, and currently paints highest totals across NW AR. Given the diverse model outcomes and resulting lower confidence, will let NBM totals ride for now. It should be noted that CAMs thus far are considerably less aggressive with QPF during this period and adjustments will likely be required as model solutions eventually converge. The aforementioned upper low deepens as it passes just to our east on Wednesday, providing additional low rain chances to far NE OK and NW AR. Widespread, strong post-frontal winds will likely be the most notable impact from this storm system. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph may develop during the day Tuesday and Wednesday, and will need to monitor for possible Wind Advisory issuance. By Wednesday night, northwest flow aloft develops with high pressure at the surface. ECONUS troughing is projected through the remainder of the forecast period, with weak ridging and predominantly dry conditions ensuing. A shortwave is progged to pass overhead Friday but the bulk of model solutions keep this feature dry, and this outcome is favored in the forecast at this time. Temperatures remain below average for the next several days, with highs mainly in the 60s (lower 70s south). Low temperatures start out in the 40s and 50s next week, but fall into the 30s across northern zones Wednesday night through Friday night. Currently not expecting a freeze, but areas of frost may develop mid to late week, just in time to welcome the month of November. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Widespread IFR conditions will continue across eastern OK, while quickly trending that way across western AR early in this forecast period. Cluster of thunderstorms near the center of upper low will continue to move east and potentially impact KFSM, otherwise scattered showers will continue through much of Sunday, while diminishing from the west gradually. A period of MVFR conditions is possible across eastern OK for Sunday afternoon, but potential exists for IFR or even LIFR to return after 00z Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 53 67 54 / 30 0 0 20 FSM 66 55 68 55 / 60 10 0 20 MLC 68 53 71 54 / 50 10 0 20 BVO 61 50 65 50 / 20 0 10 30 FYV 63 48 66 49 / 60 10 0 20 BYV 58 50 61 51 / 60 10 0 20 MKO 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20 MIO 61 52 66 53 / 40 10 0 20 F10 65 53 68 54 / 40 10 0 20 HHW 70 55 71 56 / 40 10 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...14