762 FXUS64 KTSA 260123 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 808 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Showers and a few storms remain in the forecast through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy overall. - Another storm system impacts the region early next week with gusty winds and low chances for rain. - Seasonably cool temperatures forecast through the period && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 808 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Low to moderate elevated instability has expanded northward into the southwest corner of the CWA. While the latest mesoscale analysis indicates wind fields remain unfavorable for the developing activity to become organized, there remains a low (<20%) chance that one or two cells pulse enough to produce marginally severe hail. The activity across southeast Oklahoma is expected to gradually weaken through 09Z as it lifts northeast while additional showers or drizzle develops closer to the low center moving along the Kansas border. Earlier PoP updates accounted for both the increase in storm coverage across southeast Oklahoma and the showers to the north. Winds remain gusty across northwest Arkansas where surface gradient continues to remain tight with the surface ridge holding in place as a low pressure center moves across north Texas. Expect low clouds and areas of fog to continue in the resultant easterly flow through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The upper level low and trough axis finally begins to shift east of the local region during the day tomorrow. Rain chances will diminish from west to east during the day tomorrow as the trough axis moves through the region. Continued cloudiness will keep temperatures down in the low 60s once again, though some clearing is expected during the afternoon across southeast Oklahoma leading to some 70s along the Red River. As this system finally exits, another system is still progged to follow on its heels, bringing a cold front through the area early next week. An upper low is progged to drop southeastward out of the Northern Plains and become cutoff and intensify over the Ozark Plateau Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture return ahead of the frontal boundary will be very limited in the wake of the current system. Therefore rain chances remain low with the frontal passage, with better chances being south and east of the CWA. A few light showers will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly in close proximity to the upper low across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Any amounts are expected to be light if any rain does occur. The bigger impact from the next system remains the likelihood or gusty northwesterly winds both Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front. Advisory level wind gusts appear possible both days for parts of the region with gusts of 40 plus mph. As the system exits Wednesday, surface ridging will settle into the region Wednesday night and as skies clear, lows will drop into the 30s and lower 40s across the region. Some patchy frost could be possible by Thursday morning for some of the normally colder locations. weak upper ridging returns for the latter half of the week with a warming trend expected into next weekend and dry conditions. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 With the upper low over north-central OK moving slowly east through the period and moist easterly surface flow, there is high confidence of IFR conditions developing at all sites overnight and continuing through early Sunday afternoon. Occasionally LIFR ceilings and visibility are forecast with -DZ toward daybreak with continued poor flying conditions through the remainder of the morning. There is a medium chance that conditions improve to MVFR across OK TAF sites as the upper low moves into Missouri Sunday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 56 62 52 66 / 40 30 0 10 FSM 58 66 54 69 / 70 40 10 0 MLC 56 68 52 71 / 60 30 10 0 BVO 51 60 48 64 / 50 20 10 10 FYV 52 61 48 66 / 70 50 10 10 BYV 52 57 50 61 / 70 70 20 0 MKO 56 64 53 68 / 60 30 0 0 MIO 53 60 51 65 / 60 30 10 10 F10 55 64 52 69 / 70 30 0 0 HHW 58 70 54 71 / 70 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...24