356 FXUS61 KCLE 260005 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 805 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is situated over the Great Lakes region and will slowly drift to the east through early next week. A low pressure system will form across the mid-Mississippi Valley and move east into the region mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 7:50 PM Update: The frost/freeze potential remains tricky tonight with potential for higher clouds to limit cooling at times, especially across the west/ southwest, to go along with very weak onshore northeasterly flow and potential for lake effect clouds closer to the lake. Mid-level clouds have decreased notably over the last couple hours across most of the area and guidance generally suggests they won't fill back in... however, we may see at least some cloud cover spread into our southwestern counties later this evening. Lake effect clouds are currently out over the lake, with some stratus persisting in extreme Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Flow will shift overnight (after 6z) behind a subtle shortwave passage, which likely will push lake effect clouds south off the lake. How quickly they spread inland is a question. It is possible that some counties currently not under the Freeze Warning (particularly Medina/Summit/Portage and maybe Trumbull) take until close to dawn for lake effect clouds to spread in, which would imply greater likelihood of frost/freeze conditions. Outside of some passing higher clouds, another potential wrench in this area is subtle low-level troughing evident on 850mb and 925mb model wind/RH/temp fields through the night across Northeast OH, which may fill back in with at least some stratus clouds at any time. Ultimately made minor changes to the low temperature forecast and coverage of frost wording in the forecast (raised lows slightly in our west and southwest due to more clouds spreading in from the west, and lowered lows and beefed up frost coverage slightly in the Medina- Trumbull County corridor). Strongly considered expanding the Freeze Warning into that corridor, though ultimately was not quite confident enough to make changes to a headline just a few hours after we initially hoisted it. With that said, if anyone outside of the immediate lakeshore still has sensitive vegetation, they should take it inside or cover it tonight out of an abundance of caution with this chilly airmass in place. Note that per an earlier Public Information Statement, we have ended the growing season (meaning no additional frost/freeze products this fall) in parts of Northwest Ohio. We are expecting some lake effect showers to start re-developing late this evening into the overnight...initially along and just off the shoreline northeast of Cleveland as land breeze convergence increases overnight. Lake effect showers will then push south-southwest, slightly inland into the primary snowbelt and then towards the lakeshore between Cleveland and Sandusky, into early Sunday morning as a weak shortwave passage shifts the flow more northerly. This is represented well in the going POP/sky/QPF forecast, meaning no other changes were made outside of the minor low temp/frost changes. Previous Discussion: Lake effect showers have been slowing ending across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as High pressure builds over the region and flow weakens. As the high shifts more to the east, low- level flow will become more northeasterly leading to the lake effect showers starting up again tonight into early Sunday across north- central Ohio west to Fremont. Dry air moves in throughout Sunday and will cut off the lake effect showers. Temperatures tonight into Sunday morning will drop down into the low 30s to upper 20s away from the lakeshore. A freeze warning has been issued mainly for the US 30 corridor and south. The caveat with this is how much cloud cover will there be. Between the low, lake effect clouds to the north and the higher clouds to the south, there will be a thin area that could cool effectively enough to freeze. If the cloud cover is more widespread then temperatures may not drop enough to freeze. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s, and around 40 near the lakeshore. For Sunday night, there will be ample clearing with the influx of dry air, so temperatures will be able to effectively drop to around and below freezing for much of the region. Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night as well given the growing season hasn't ended with the previous nights freeze. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging builds in from the west to start next week leading to quiet weather for the majority of the short term. An upper level trough begins to deepens across southern Canada Tuesday and a shortwave feature will break off from larger trough and push southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. Most global models depict this system fairly well and are in agreement during this model run as it evolves during this timeframe. This will become more of a impact during the long term. Temperatures during the short term will trend a little warmer with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned system in the short term will progress east- northeastward starting mid-week. Model guidance at this point becomes separated in the track of the surface low as it moves east. The GFS has the low with a more southerly track, which if that is the case, then we will see little to no precipitation across the region. The Canadian and the ECMWF both have the system with a more northerly track and a widespread precipitation shield as it moves through the region. Regardless, the air mass behind the low will be cooler and with the west-to-northwesterly flow across the region lake effect showers will form across the snow belt region into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The primary forecast concerns impacting some local terminals include potential for lake effect showers tonight into early Sunday, along with potential for patchy fog/mist early Sunday. Regarding the lake effect showers, these are expected to take shape along or just off the Lake Erie shoreline later this evening, pushing southwest and a bit more onshore early Sunday morning. These showers will only be in play for terminals along the lakeshore from PCW points east, including ERI and CLE. Maintained VCSH mentions at both, from 4-9z at ERI and 9-15z at CLE. There are low odds for non-VFR vsby if a heavier shower impacts a terminal, with slightly greater odds at ERI where a PROB30 was included. Ceilings may dip to MVFR in any showers and also into early Sunday, especially at ERI (where it's included in the TAF) with lower confidence at CLE. In terms of fog/mist, passing high clouds likely limit this. However, hi-res guidance consistently suggests a sliver of interior eastern Ohio, including CAK and YNG, may hang on to mostly clear skies long enough to see fog early Sunday. Confidence is low, though included a few hours of MVFR BR at CAK where the potential may be slightly higher to at least get some awareness of it. Winds will be light and variable tonight, increasing out of the east-northeast to 6-12 knots Sunday afternoon...strongest towards TOL and FDY, weakest towards YNG. Outlook...Scattered rain showers with non-VFR are possible this Tuesday night through Thursday. && .MARINE... High pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes Region will maintain light winds with good marine conditions into Sunday. Northeast winds on Sunday will increase to 10-15 knots during the afternoon with a chop developing by late in the day. On Monday we enter a period of brisk northeast to easterly winds as high pressure sets up over Quebec and a series of low pressure systems move through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, leading to a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening winds. Small Craft Advisory conditions look to be met on the western two-thirds of the lake Monday night as northeast winds increase to 20-25 knots and waves build in the nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will be needed at times through Thursday as we maintain increased east to northeast winds. Winds finally back to northwesterly on Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ028>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...23 NEAR TERM...23/Sullivan SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...10