048 FXUS61 KBTV 251134 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and cloudy pattern will persist through the weekend, though additional showers will be mostly light and confined to the mountains. High elevation snow showers will occur, supporting light accumulations on the mountain summits. Conditions look to trend drier and a little sunnier heading into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...A large upper level low is centered over the region and it will slowly move to the east going through the weekend. It will keep the pattern cool and cloudy, and there will be isolated showers as well. The showers will be mostly confined to the typical upslope areas. Freezing levels will continue to drop through the rest of the night so snow levels should drop into some of the mid-slopes. However, by the time they drop lower, most of the lingering precipitation will be gone. During the day today, moisture will be much shallower and it should be mostly out of the snow growth zone, so the precipitation will likely be more mist/drizzle, though with temperatures below freezing in the mountains, there should be some continued riming. A shortwave will pass down through the region tonight into Sunday morning and it may enhance the showers slightly, though they will remain scattered. Snow levels bottom out Sunday morning, and with the slightly enhanced precipitation, that will be the best chance for any of the higher elevation towns to see their first flakes. At this point, NBM unconditional precipitation types are almost 100 percent snow across the Adirondacks and the higher elevation towns of Vermont, so if precipitation occurs, it is likely to be snow. However, if anything does occur, it will be light and not amount to anything. Westerly to northwesterly flow should keep the lake effect showers to the south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...While the center of the upper level low will build off slightly to the east Sunday night into Monday, it will become cutoff and its effects will linger around. This period has trended cooler and cloudier, and there could be a few lingering isolated showers in the upslope areas. Summit levels will remain below freezing so riming should continue to occur, and a few snow showers are possible if the moisture can deepen back into the snow growth zone. Any precipitation during this period will be very light. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging continues to be favored through Tuesday with high pressure projected over southern Canada. Model consensus breaks down Wednesday onward with a chaotic and complicated pattern resulting in multiple potential outcomes. GFS/Canadian hang onto ridging with upper low cutting off much farther west than ECMWF and ensemble solutions. ECMWF cuts off upper low over Ohio River Valley with a gyre forming wrapping moisture back across the Northeast. Probabilistic guidance is more similar to the ECMWF favoring some form of unsettled weather depending on various low pressure systems and their potential positions. Therefore, kept closer to blended guidance which still supports 30-50% chances of showers mid to late week. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal normals for highs while lows are favored to be warmer given current weak consensus of increasing moisture/clouds. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions will continue for most terminals with a thick OVC060 deck moving across northern New York and Vermont. The exceptions are RUT where conditions are favorable for IFR or lower fog with IFR/MVFR CIGs through 14Z before VFR conditions return. SLK is experiencing upslope flow with OVC012 likely to continue with some chances of drizzle today; should drizzle begin, IFR will become an almost certainty. c MVFR CIGs and showers and MSS where clearing may occur by 10Z. Otherwise, westerly flow and a weak wave could allow for very isolated showers or some areas of drizzle. Another wave moving through after 06Z tonight will promote more widespread MVFR CIGS and possibly a few showers. Low freezing levels support icing in clouds at and above ridges. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Boyd EQUIPMENT...BTV