677 
FXUS64 KBMX 201119
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
619 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025

 - Chilly mornings are expected daily through Friday with
   temperatures in the 40s. A few of the typically cooler
   locations may reach the upper 30s.

 - Low humidity values are forecast during the afternoon hours for
   today, Wednesday, and Thursday. Light winds should preclude a 
   more compelling setup for fire weather conditions.

 - A broken line of showers should accompany a front on Tuesday.
   Another system may produce a greater coverage of showers and a
   couple thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025

A mid- to upper-level trough moving across the northern U.S. early
this week will push a front across central Alabama on Tuesday.
Moisture advection will initiate today and tonight over Texas as
surface ridging over the Southeast U.S. advances eastward a bit.
Due to the quick progression of the front, advection of deep moisture
along the front will be limited; however, frontal lift will
compensate for that. Over the past couple of days, some members of
the ECMWF and GFS ensembles showed the potential for
precipitation. Several 00Z CAMs are on board with this scenario. 
The NBM has not quite caught up, but the official forecast now 
includes a 20% chance of showers for most of central Alabama on 
Tuesday. This should be in the form of a broken and relatively 
thin line.

It's fall, so with the frontal passage comes another surge of
cooler and drier air. Temperatures will moderate a bit over the 
weekend as another weather system approaches. Models are in fairly
good agreement regarding the track of the mid-level trough, 
though there's some variation in terms of the forward speed. 
Either scenario places an opportunity for showers and a couple 
thunderstorms over the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for the TAFs.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs this afternoon will average in the middle 20s to middle 
30s; however, there are likely to be a few swaths of lower to 
middle 20s. Light and variable winds during the morning will
become southerly by the afternoon.

A line of showers is forecast to move across central Alabama on
Tuesday, associated with a front. Rain amounts should be quite 
low. MinRHs will be higher due to an increase in dew points ahead
of the front.

Dry, post-frontal flow will be in place for Wednesday and
Thursday. MinRHs should be in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the
northern-half of central Alabama and in the lower to middle 20s
for the southern-half of central Alabama. Winds will be from the
northwest between 5-10 mph on Wednesday, more northerly on
Thursday near 5 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  45  75  43 /   0   0  20   0 
Anniston    73  47  76  45 /   0   0  20   0 
Birmingham  72  50  75  46 /   0   0  20   0 
Tuscaloosa  76  50  79  45 /   0   0  20   0 
Calera      76  48  80  46 /   0   0  20   0 
Auburn      74  49  80  50 /   0   0  20   0 
Montgomery  75  46  82  48 /   0   0  20   0 
Troy        74  46  82  50 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...08