881 FXUS64 KTSA 200523 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 - Gusty south winds return today, resulting in limited fire weather danger, before a dry cold front passes through during the afternoon. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of the week - Periods of rain and thunderstorms likely Thursday through Saturday && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 Southerly winds will increase this morning across the area as the surface gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front due into the area this afternoon. Strong 925-850mb flow will likely result in gusts of 35-40 mph across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma from mid-morning through early afternoon as daytime mixing occurs before the strong low level jet weakens. A period of 40mph+ gusts will be possible for a few hours from mid morning through early afternoon, and have opted to issue a short duration Wind Advisory from near I-44 and points to the north where the best chances will be for stronger gusts. The strong southerly flow and clear skies will allow temperatures to rebound quickly today with highs expected to bounce back into the mid to upper 80s ahead of the frontal passage this afternoon. That combined with relatively dry low level conditions will present a period of elevated fire spread potential across portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly west of Highway 75, where wetting rains were absent on Saturday and fuels are generally more receptive. The front is progged to enter northeast Oklahoma by early afternoon and progress through southeast Oklahoma by early evening. As the front approaches, the winds will relax for a period during the frontal passage. Northwesterly winds will then pick up behind the front with gusts around 20-25mph as temperatures drop back to near seasonal normals for the overnight period. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 Dry and more seasonable conditions return for Tuesday with a rather chilly morning in store for Wednesday morning as the surface high settles overhead. Some places across the north could approach lows in the upper 30s Wednesday morning with widespread low to mid 40s expected. A slightly warmer afternoon is on tap for Wednesday under mostly clear skies. A more unsettled pattern will evolve for the second part of the forecast later this week into the weekend with multiple periods of rain and thunderstorms forecast over the region. A mid level low currently cut off over the eastern Pacific will meander eastward over the next couple of days and eventually get absorbed into the main jet stream across the western CONUS. As this system slowly lifts northeastward across the Plains during the latter part of the work week, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as low level moisture returns. Periods of showers and storms will move across the region from Thursday morning through Saturday morning as it looks right now. Severe weather chances look pretty minimal but a few stronger storms could develop, especially Friday afternoon as the main shortwave moves nearby and ahead of another cold front approaching the region. The cold front looks to move through by Saturday with lull in precip chances noted for the last part of the weekend. Another system looks to arrive on the heals of the exiting one with more storm chances on the horizon by early next week. Severe weather potential could be greater with that system and trends will be watched as it gets closer. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 VFR will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds will increase through the overnight and early morning hours this morning. Maintained LLWS through at most sites through mid morning. Gusty southerly winds this morning will eventually veer southwest to west by mid afternoon, then northwesterly as another cold front pushes through the region late this afternoon into this evening. Northwest winds will gradually decrease after sunset. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 50 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 82 52 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 85 51 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 82 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 77 45 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 75 47 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 82 49 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 78 45 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 F10 85 48 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 84 55 77 44 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>064. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...67