865 
FXUS65 KFGZ 162256
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 PM MST Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will continue 
through Friday. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend 
with near normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A tranquil weather pattern will persist over Arizona
over the next several days, with dry conditions expected. One
final shortwave on the back side of the departing low will move
across our region on Friday, keeping cool air in place. Daytime
highs Friday will continue to be 5-10 degrees below normal, but
the shortwave won't be bringing any moisture with it and sunny
skies are forecast. Overnight lows the next couple nights will
continue to be chilly, with sub-freezing values in the high
country and into the mid 30s for mid-range elevations like Winslow
and Prescott. 

Saturday through Tuesday - heights rise across the area as high
pressure builds in from the southeast. A closed low will take
shape well off the southern California and Baja coast. The result
for northern Arizona will be warmer temperatures, with daytime
highs a few degrees above mid October averages. Winds will be
light through Sunday but may pick up slightly by Tuesday as the
offshore low starts to shift eastward toward the southwest US.
This low is generally forecast to move across our area late
Tuesday or Wednesday with the usual timing uncertainty 5-6 days
out. Our latest forecasts using model blends includes around a 20%
chance of showers during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 17/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue under mostly clear skies. NW through NE winds around
5-15 kts are expected to continue. Locally enhanced downslope
winds expected overnight to the southwest of the Mogollon Rim and
Bradshaw Mountains.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/00Z through Monday 20/00Z...VFR conditions
continue with NW through NE winds 5-10 kts each day, remaining
locally gusty downwind of the terrain overnight. Winds shift to
S-SW at 5-15 kts on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Dry conditions with 
temperatures warming to seasonal average by Saturday.
Winds NW-NE 5-10 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 20-30% Friday, 
15-25% Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures remain near seasonal averages. 
Winds S-SW 5-10 mph on Sunday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Monday, S-SW 10-15 
mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff