501 FXUS63 KLBF 141150 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 650 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible through the day with cooler temperatures - Fog potential Wednesday morning across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska - Temperatures warm on Wednesday with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the chance for isolated severe storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The main concerns in the short term will be precipitation chances through today and the cooler temperatures, along with fog potential early Wednesday morning. As a sw trof moves into the area will see shower activity increase this morning. The greatest potential for precipitation will be this morning through early afternoon with precipitation expected to lift off to the northeast in the afternoon and evening. As far as qpf amounts, they will generally be light around 0.10 to a quarter of an inch, with the greatest precipitation across north central Nebraska. Kept temperatures trending cooler as the combination of showers and increasing low cloud coverage through the peak heating hours is expected, highs will generally be in the 50s to low 60s. Given the additional low level moisture in the area tonight and lighter winds, fog development is expected. The greatest potential for fog will generally be across the northern Sandhills and north central Nebraska where patchy to potentially more widespread fog is expected. Further south winds are expected to stay a little stronger around 5 to 10 mph, but could still see patchy fog development in the river valleys and low-lying areas. Will need to monitor weather a headline may be needed for dense fog, with the greatest threat across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska. For Wednesday, it will be a brief warm-up as WAA increases with the lifting warm front. Southerly winds will also increase with 15 to 20 mph sustained winds and gust of 30 mph or greater. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Wednesday evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. There is a marginal outlook from SPC, generally west of HWY 83. Generally would expect the greatest timeframe for severe weather threat to be brief, but would expect it during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Large scale ascent focused over western Nebraska, there will also be a narrow areas of 750 to 1100 J/kg of mu CAPE and decent deep layer shear around 50 kts. The main threats will be hail and damaging winds. A cold front will move east across the area on Thursday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms, at this time severe threat is low, however more moderate rainfall is possible generally along and east of HWY 83, where half an inch or more may be possible throughout Thursday. Cooler temperatures will be possible on Saturday with highs only in the 60s and lows dipping into the low to mid 30s. Will have to monitor trends as the weekend approaches to see if any Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed if future forecast trend cooler. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Cigs will continue to lower through the day and MVFR conditions are possible this morning with IFR to LIFR conditions this afternoon and evening. There will also be showers and even some isolated thunderstorms possible this morning through the afternoon. Winds will be out of the southeast around 5 to 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Gomez