014 FXUS62 KMLB 031810 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 210 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Wet weather pattern next few days with increased winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially along the coast where a Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday night. - Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Today-Sat...Fairly tight E/NE pressure gradient around strong high pressure over the NE U.S. will produce breezy/gusty conditions with fast moving showers pushing onshore. PWATs are 1.5-1.8" today which will support locally heavy and persistent rains with a flood threat materializing where any bands set up across the coast from the Atlc. Concern increases tonight and Sat as deeper moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.1") propagates westward from the Bahamas, a remnant flux of moisture possible left over from Imelda. A weak wave of low pressure may develop near the NW Bahamas tonight/Sat and track NW across S FL. This would increase the easterly winds across the area as well as enhance the convergence resulting in a higher coverage and intensity of rain expanding northward. As a result, WPC has drawn a Slight risk of excessive rain for much of the central FL Atlc coast Sat. While most areas will see less than 2 inches of rain, rainbands with highly efficient rain rates will be capable of localized 3-5". Confidence where these locally higher rainfall amounts will occur is low, but there has been a fairly consistent signal for the coast south of the Cape today, shifting northward to include most of the coast Saturday. The evolution of this sfc low will be key to determining the extent of the heavy rain threat esp on Sat. Areas where soils are reaching saturation from previous heavy rainfall will have higher sensitivity to flooding, particularly coastal Volusia and portions of the Treasure Coast. A Flood watch remains in effect through Sat night. Will monitor the need for a Wind Advisory Sat along the coast if sustained winds can get to 25 mph and/or gusts to 35 mph. On the St Johns River, Astor is already flirting with Moderate Flood stage (3.0 ft) and heavy rainfall should cause rises on other sections of the basin such as Cocoa and Geneva. At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft are will continue to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune will continue to cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide which will occur between 4-7am and again 4-7pm the next few days. Sun-Thu...Moist onshore flow is forecast to continue with high (60-70%) rain chances Sun-Mon. Eventually some drier air is forecast to move in from the E/NE either Tue or Wed temporarily lowering rain chances. But model guidance is consistent showing another strong high pressure developing over the eastern CONUS mid week, keeping a brisk onshore flow with increasing moisture and fast moving showers pushing onshore. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring over the local Atlc waters as tight NE to E pressure gradient around sfc high along the eastern seaboard supports 20-25 knots. These winds and swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous conditions will persist through the weekend. A weak low or wave of low pressure is forecast to develop near the NW Bahamas in the next 24-36 hours and this tighten the gradient a little further. Occasional gusts to Gale Force (34 knots) will be possible tonight and Sat. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE. While speeds should dip below 20 knots esp across the southern waters, seas will be slow to subside so have extended the SCA to include Sunday for all the waters. A further extension of the SCA appears likely for the offshore waters into early next week. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning this weekend into early next week. Some drying should eventually move in from the northeast Tue-Wed but it looks short-lived. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Showers with isolated lightning storms continue to push onshore and across the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH across all terminals through the period as rounds of showers persist. While VFR conditions will dominate, brief MVFR conditions in passing showers will be possible. Due to the brief nature of the impacts from these showers, have continued not to include TEMPOs at this time. However, will continue to monitor for any localized banding of showers, and a few amendments can't be ruled out. Breezy and gusty east-northeast winds of 15-20 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT this afternoon and early evening. Winds will remain gusty along the coast overnight with gusts up to 20 KT, while winds will decrease to around 10 KT across the interior. East to northeast winds will increase by mid morning on Saturday to 15-20 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 83 74 84 / 50 60 60 70 MCO 72 84 74 86 / 30 50 40 60 MLB 75 84 75 84 / 50 60 60 60 VRB 75 84 75 85 / 50 60 60 60 LEE 72 84 73 85 / 20 40 30 60 SFB 73 84 74 85 / 40 60 50 70 ORL 73 84 74 85 / 40 50 40 70 FPR 75 84 75 86 / 50 60 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Watson